It should activate civil society groups to inoculate people against emotions and a Pulwama-like incident, than waste time in trying to field a joint candidate in every constituency
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi interacts with students at the Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalaya in Wayanad. Pic/Twitter
The Opposition is engaged in an admirable but futile endeavour to field a joint candidate against the Bharatiya Janata Party in as many constituencies as possible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Opposition should instead focus on ensuring that the next year’s battle of ballots pivots around the people judging the BJP’s performance rather than being influenced by the politics of hate, or the sudden occurrence of an event tragic or celebratory enough to sway the nation. Emotions impair the mind from making a rational decision.
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The futility of the Opposition’s endeavour is evident from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections data—only in 48 out of the 303 seats the BJP won did it secure less than the total votes polled by the parties placed second and third. Thus, a united Opposition would have reduced the BJP from 303 to 255 seats, but could not have prevented it from coming to power.
Out of the 48 seats, 33 were located in just four states—Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Telangana. In West Bengal, the Left will not align with the Trinamool for such a decision will have the former forfeit the entire Opposition space to the BJP.
The BJD would be unwilling to dilute its regional identity by stitching a deal with the Congress, more so as the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections are held simultaneously in Odisha. As long as the BJD believes it can win Odisha on its own, the party cares little about the BJP ruling the Centre. The BJP has not, after all, raided and entangled BJD leaders in court cases.
Clinging to its regional identity is an instinct with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, despite its new name, in Telangana. Vociferously opposed to the BJP earlier, its leaders have been relatively muted ever since the BJP let loose the Enforcement Directorate against BRS leader K C Rao’s family and friends. There is just too much bad blood between Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Reddy and the Gandhis to work out a rapprochement, and the state’s another player, the Telugu Desam Party, has taken to wearing saffron-tinted glasses.
There are states in which an Opposition alliance is already in place—think Bihar, Maharashtra and Tamil Naadu. Kerala does not make a quantitative difference to an Opposition alliance as the seats there are shared between the Left and the Congress. Post-election, both will together try to keep the BJP out of power.
Uttar Pradesh is a heartbreaker for the Opposition. The Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Bahujan Samaj Party formed what was considered a formidable alliance. They together won only 15 out of the state’s 80 seats. They could have won seven more but for the presence of the Congress in the fray. Mayawati has repeatedly said the BSP will go alone in 2024. The SP-RLD-Congress alliance lacks the mojo of the SP-BSP-RLD-Congress combination, which, too, would have failed to put the skids under the BJP in 2019, such was the magnitude of votes the BJP polled.
In 2019, the BJP had a 50-60 per cent of vote share in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Maharashtra and Karnataka, and a 60-70 per cent vote share in Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Uttarakhand. Such mammoth polling for the BJP, good enough for it to win a one-to-one fight, was triggered by the Pulwama terror attack, and the retaliatory air strike the Modi government undertook against Pakistan. Although these strikes were of uncertain efficacy, the voters were emotionally too charged to judge rationally the Modi government’s performance.
Indeed, 2019 underscores that the Opposition must make the next year’s hustings emotion-proof. Like waterproof products. The BJP is already preparing to whip up the sentiments of Hindus, evident from its plan to introduce a Uniform Civil Code and inaugurate Ayodhya’s Ram Temple in January 2024. Add to this the ever-existing possibility of an occurrence packing as intense an impact as Pulwama had, and the ensuing emotional upsurge could well return the BJP to power next year, regardless of a united Opposition.
In anticipation of such a scenario, the Opposition should expend its energy to create a network of civil society organisations eager to save India’s social fabric from being torn apart. Like two such groups in Karnataka did so earlier this year.
The Eddelu Karnataka, or Wake Up Karnataka, according to the Frontline magazine, prepared and disseminated widely a booklet, ‘4 Years of BJP’s Rule: Disillusionment Due to Dead Promises’, circulated 80 videos and held 75 conferences to explain to the people why they should not vote for the BJP. It persuaded Muslim voters to turn out in larger numbers than before, and cautioned people against voting for weak non-BJP candidates as that would have split the anti-BJP votes. Over 5,000 volunteers manned social media to inoculate people against hate.
The Bahutva Karnataka, or Pluralistic Karnataka, did not overtly take sides, but, tellingly, produced report cards on 15 vital sectors in which the BJP’s performance had been abysmal. Building upon Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the efforts of state Congress leaders, the two groups ensured Karnataka’s voters were hate-proofed to a large extent. It is this model the Opposition needs to replicate for the 2024 elections.
The writer is a senior journalist.
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