The Karnataka polls have shown that Congress has acted with a flexibility and quickness it rarely showed in the past
It was being said that the Karnataka Assembly polls should be able to shape the political discourse of the time to come, with an eye on next year's general elections. Things are headed that way, thanks to a secondary role that the Indian National Congress has decided to play in a game that would have regional parties as dominant stakeholders. The reactions that Karnataka's high drama has evoked from the ruling regional parties and others that are poised to throw a challenge to the BJP were more like war cries.
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The BJP isn't naïve to ignore what lies ahead and it should be seen changing its strategy as it faces newer challenges. We should not be surprised if BJP works overtime on dividing the outfits that the Congress wants to gather under one umbrella with the sole target of stopping BJP in its strides. The war cries we have been hearing from the foes of BJP mean a single agenda, but without a unified command centre they cannot turn it into action on all fronts where the BJP needs to be defeated. It is still a grey area for the opposition that the BJP should seek advantage from.
Regional rationale
High on ambitions, the regional parties in some states have their own calculations, permutations and combinations that have little space for the Congress, which will have to work elsewhere to emerge as the first or the second largest party at the Centre. The Congress think-tank seems to have done a reality check. After Gujarat, where it fought BJP in a straight fight and hurled a stunner that almost unseated the ruling party, it missed out on retaining power on its own in Karnataka. But it performed exceedingly well outside legislature. It learned from past mistakes and took every cue from BJP's moves. It made the right noises in the people's court and also in the highest judicial offices of the country. It was pleasant to see the Congress leaders, who are also the party's legal experts, shed their infamous arrogance, as they spoke their minds at media conferences and argued in the courts.Little wonder then, the Congress does not seem to be pushing its president Rahul Gandhi as a torch-bearer for all opposition, unless supported by the number of elected representatives.
A decision to give JD (S) the chief minister's post in Karnataka should be seen as a part of strategy that serves many purposes. It gives out a message that the Congress will make sacrifices to strengthen a mission 'say-no-to-Modi-BJP'. It embraced a post-poll partner, and it said unlike BJP (or the Congress of the past that had pulled out support to Deve Gowda's Union government), it wouldn't eliminate a friend in need.
Regionals such as Shiv Sena, BSP, SP, TRS, Trinamool Congress, TDP, RJD and other outfits have welcomed the development in Karnataka, especially the Congress' fightback in ensuring that BJP's CM steps down and JD (S) chief HD Kumaraswamy gets to run the government, as promised on the election results day.
The anti-Modi gang sees it as a positive and mature decision from the Congress, which acted with a flexibility and quickness it rarely showed in the past, in the decision-making process of the Karnataka episode.
Testing times for BJP
The BJP expects the new-found love between the Congress and JD (S) to vanish soon. It says there will be Assembly polls in Karnataka very soon and it will win, this time, with a thumping majority. If it happens or not in the southern state, the BJP will now have to keep its flag flying in three of its citadels — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where regional parties don't matter much, but may have an influence here and there. As has been in the past three decades, it should be a one-on-one fight between the Congress and BJP. These states will also fairly indicate where the two parties stand ahead of Lok Sabha polls. MP sends 29 MPs, Chhattisgarh has 11 and Rajasthan 25.
Going by the voting pattern of the Assembly in Karnakata, a unified opposition should at least win 22-23 of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state. By-polls in Uttar Pradesh have established that the united opposition, mainly the regionals SP and BSP, should be able to reduce BJP considerably in a state that sends highest number of 80 MPs.
Second in the line after UP is Maharashtra, where the Assembly polls are held six months after the general polls (48 MPs) and it usually sees an impact of previous polls on formation of a state government. Yet, we may have some 'trend learning' in the offing when Palghar and Bhandara-Gondia go to the Lok Sabha by-poll on May 28.
Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com
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