On the same road they travelled five years ago

Karnataka boosted the Congress’s anti-BJP campaign in 2018 as well, leading to its win in three more states, but lost miserably in the general polls. Will the party be able to change itself upside down to block the BJP’s Lok Sabha return next summer?

Karnataka had led the way for the Opposition, especially for the Congress, in 2018 when the party had made a government with the Janata Dal (Secular), as the Bharatiya Janata Party—the single largest then—couldn’t muster the numbers required to stay on in power. Later that year, the Congress had beaten the BJP in three major Hindi-speaking states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi or BRS) had retained another south border state of Telangana, where the Congress had trailed way behind and the BJP scored almost naught, and Mizoram had gone to the Mizo National Front. With just four months to go for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Opposition was charged up to predict the BJP’s ouster from New Delhi. However, in the general elections, all these states, barring Telangana, voted contrary to the Vidhan Sabha trends, giving Narendra Modi a massive push for the second term, with the number of MPs much bigger than 2014. 

Repeat albeit with difference

This time around, the Congress is again buoyed, strongly hoping to beat the BJP in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and later in the Lok Sabha polls in April-May next year, of course by consolidating the like-minded parties. The script appears to be repeated, but with an important difference that could be decisive, at least, in these three states. In Karnataka, the voters this year turned the previous three-way fight into two-way. They dealt a massive defeat to the BJP, which hadn’t faced such an electoral low in recent years, and relegated the JD(S) to an insignificant position. It was proven once again that the Congress benefitted when the other parties, including its own offshoots, weren’t in the fray. Traditionally, the states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh have had a straight battle between the Congress and the BJP. The dynamics there aren’t expected to change. With BRS in charge, Telangana is likely to be out of bounds to the Congress, the BJP and any new or old regional players there.

Also read: Maharashtra: Karnataka win gives hope to Congress and its allies

Rectification, a way ahead

In its verdict, Karnataka showed that the Congress was able to rectify its mistakes—on organisational and campaign fronts—to score its biggest ever win in 40 years. The prelude to this article suggests that the situation has remained unchanged for the Congress in several matters since 2019, especially when it is preparing for the forthcoming state and Lok Sabha polls. Karnataka had a lesson for the party: learn from the past and plan accordingly, take risks if needed, shed lethargy and embrace unity of leaders that ultimately unites their loyal workforce. Of course, the BJP had been a catalyst for its arch rival’s stunning re-emergence in the gateway to south India. The Karnataka Congress leadership responded cautiously to the BJP’s triggers because they knew the local issues were the actual driving force to victory. They prevented their campaign from turning into a face-off between Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Observers say that the similar strategy should help the Congress perform better in the Hindi belt where it would also be interesting to see how the BJP uses the Hindutva card that the most voters in Karnataka pushed to the backseat. 

Namo vs Raga unavoidable 

The Congress might have averted a direct clash between Rahul and Modi in Karnataka, but it is unlikely to be so, thanks to the leaders who have put the party’s former president in a direct line with the PM, after the Karnataka win and the battles ahead. Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra has been given the most credit for increasing the Congress’s numbers in Karnataka. So it would be interesting to watch yatra’s influence in Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. People in the Congress have said that the second leg of the Bharat Jodo Yatra will travel between the east and west, covering the states that go to polls later this year. If so, then, the cross-country walk should begin in June-July.

Maharashtra isn’t K’taka

Rahul’s yatra and the situation leading to Karnataka results have brought the neighbouring Maharashtra on the Congress and Opposition’s table, with the desire to consume unlimited but the menu limited. Dethroned last year, the Maha Vikas Aghadi has been fighting its demons. Post-Karnataka, they have vowed to displace the BJP and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena, which has been given a lifeline by the Supreme Court recently. The other Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, will have its time split in the court matters and organisational work. The Nationalist Congress Party has just fortified its fragile walls against a consistent perception that it is bound to split sooner or later. With two possible pre-poll allies battling their own issues, the Congress in Maharashtra may have an opportunity to reclaim the top position it held a decade ago in a four-party/two-alliance fight.

As of now, the national party occupies the third spot behind two regional parties of the Opposition camp by virtue of its elected Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha strength. Post-Karnataka, the Maharashtra Congress leadership has been predicting the BJP’s downfall, exactly the way it had done in 2018. Yet, the party’s performance in the subsequent Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls fell short of being in a position to claim the Opposition leader’s office. It did manage some good departments in the MVA government, but did not really use them to strengthen the party but encouraged infighting among the senior leaders and ministers, who still share bad blood. The same lot of leaders is expected to be on the forefront in Maharashtra where the organisational weakness and the infighting are much more serious than in Karnataka, where the party had two biggies D K Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah bury the hatchet, at least during the election. 

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore

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