According to a mathematical modelling study done by IIT-Kanpur researchers, the fourth wave of the pandemic in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid to late August
Covid care centre in Kanjurmarg. Pic/ Anurag Ahire
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)'s public health department is rethinking its decision to shut the jumbo covid care centres and rather keep them on standby.
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The discussion comes as the authorities are dicey about the Covid-19 situation in Mumbai after a recent research, done by the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K), claims that there will be a fourth wave of Covid-19 in June this year.
As the number of Covid-19 cases in the city has decreased and hardly any admissions are being made in jumbo covid centres, the civic body had earlier decided to dismantle and shut the centres by this week.
Now, the civic authorities are thinking of coming up with a new decision after a meeting with Covid-19 task force of Maharashtra.
According to the mathematical modelling study done by IIT-Kanpur researchers, the fourth wave of the pandemic in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid to late August. The study used a statistical model to make the prediction. The severity of the cases, however, will rely on the nature of the variant and the Covid-19 vaccination status across India.
Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner and in-charge of public health in BMC, said, "We will conduct a meeting with state's task force committee and discuss about the prediction done by the research. We have kept the decision to shut down the jumbo centres on hold. After the meeting, we will decide whether to dismantle or keep the centres’ on standby.”
“However, the covid care centers of CC1 where suspected Covid-19 patients were being admitted will be shut," he added
Another BMC official stated that they have started the dismantling process. All patients in Dahisar jumbo covid centre were discharged and there were hardly any asymptomatic cases on the out-patient department (OPD).
As per the BMC data, in Mumbai so far, 111 per cent population (18+) has been administered with the first doses, 98 per cent population was given second doses and 57 per cent population has taken the precautionary doses.
Shashank Joshi, a member of state Covid-19 task force said, "There have been a few mathematical research studies on coronavirus cases in the past but none of them were accurate. The jumbo covid care centres will be on standby as a buffer if we see any sudden spike in the cases. While the third wave has not affected the way the first two did, the number of cases in Mumbai is still in hundreds. Rather than shutting them completely, keeping them on buffer will help us to take immediate steps in case the cases increase."
He also stated that the jumbo covid care centres have been useful for the cases from urban slum areas of Mumbai where isolation was not possible.
On Thursday, there were 80 new Covid-19 cases in Mumbai with zero deaths. The doubling rate of cases is 5,441 days.
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