A deep dive of Assembly-wise data from LS polling numbers shows all is not rosy for heavy-hitters like Aaditya, Ashish Shelar, Yamini Jadhav, among others
(Left) Aaditya Thackeray, Worli MLA, Ashish Shelar, Bandra West MLA and Yamini Jadhav, Byculla MLA
- MLAs like Aaditya Thackeray, Ashish Shelar could find themselves in some trouble
- MVA and Mahayuti candidates received more votes in areas where their MLAs were elected
- Sena (UBT) changed allies after the last election, the dynamics of many seats have changed
MLAs like Aaditya Thackeray, Ashish Shelar, Ameet Satam, Yamini Jadhav and Parag Shah could find themselves in some trouble. Those who were contesting against their respective alliance’s candidates in the recent Lok Sabha election received almost as many or more votes as the legislators did in their respective seats in the 2019 Assembly poll.
Every Lok Sabha constituency comprises six Assembly segments and leaders had instructed sitting MLAs to pull as many votes as possible in their respective seats for their alliance’s candidate. In general, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and Mahayuti candidates received more votes in areas where their MLAs were elected in the 2019 Assembly election. But as the Sena (UBT) changed allies after the last election, the dynamics of many seats have changed, which was reflected in the recent Lok Sabha election.
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Aaditya Thackeray, Worli MLA, in his car on the Western Express Highway. Pic/Rane Ashish
In 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena and BJP contested together and led in 30 of the 36 Assembly segments contained in Mumbai’s six Lok Sabha constituencies. Now, the MVA—comprising the Congress, Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP)—is projected to have an edge in 20 out of the 36 Assembly seats, while Mahayuti (with BJP, Sena, and NCP) holds an advantage in 16 seats.
In Worli, where Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya is an MLA, the MVA candidate Anil Desai received 64,844 votes while his opponent Yamini Jadhav got 58,129 votes. In 2019, Aaditya won the election with 89,248 votes, recording a margin of 67,427 votes.
Similarly, Shelar, the BJP Mumbai president, won the Bandra West seat with 74,816 votes in 2019. Though the vote share from the constituency for Mahayuti candidate Ujjwal Nikam is nearly the same—72,953, his opponent’s margin of victory is very thin. In 2019, the Congress candidate received 48,309 votes in the Vidhan Sabha election while Varsha Gaikwad received 69,347 votes. This is said to be an impact of the BJP’s severed ties with the Sena (UBT).
Interestingly, Jadhav, the Shinde Sena MLA from Byculla received a major setback in her own constituency recently. She received 51,180 votes in 2019 but could fetch only 40,817 votes this time. Her opponent Arwind Sawant received 86,883 from this area, which proved to be crucial as he won by a margin of 50,000 votes in all six Assembly constituencies that comprise the Mumbai South Lok Sabha seat. Support from Muslims was a major factor in his success.
Yamini Jadhav, Byculla MLA, at an event in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi
In the Mumbai North Lok Sabha constituency, where Piyush Goyal won with the highest margin, 3.5 lakh votes, the BJP candidate received a major chunk of votes from five constituencies except one: Malad West. Aslam Shaikh from Congress won this seat in 2019 with 79,494 votes. This time Bhushan Patil from Congress received 88,275 votes, which may be an impact of Sena (UBT) support but at the same time Goyal succeeded in fetching 87,440 votes from the area, which is alarming for the Congress MLA.
Even BJP MLA Ameet Satam’s Assembly seat—Andheri West—will be in danger as Ravindra Waikar (70,743) and Amol Kirtikar (70,522) received almost the same amount of votes in the constituency. Similarly, Waikar received just 59,397 votes against 80,4876 votes for Kirtikar from Versova where BJP has a sitting MLA, Bharati Lavekar.
Meanwhile, Shinde Sena MLAs Mangesh Kudalkar from Kurla and Dilip Lande from Chandivli are in the danger zone as their constituencies’ electorates favoured Gaikwad. Some Sena (UBT) MLAs like Sunil Prabhu from Dindoshi and Ramesh Korgaonkar from Bhandup could fetch only few votes from their constituencies.
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