Gujarat elections 2022: In spicy Saurashtra battle, no pehle AAP

BJP has problems, Cong looks rudderless, but in today’s voting, there is no free lunch for Aam Aadmi Party

In the 2017 Assembly polls, the Saurashtra region of Gujarat stopped the Bharatiya Janata Party at 99 seats in the 182-member house. Five years later, the region that comprises coastal areas and hinterland holds the key to the ruling party’s expectations of achieving a new record as the first phase of polling for 89 seats will be held on Thursday. The people in Kutch and south Gujarat will also be going out to vote to elect their respective representatives from among 788 candidates.

The Congress, which gained most here in 2017, has been hoping to repeat the show, but the then bipolar contest has now turned into a triangular one with the Aam Aadmi Party’s participation in 88 seats. The AAP has its candidates in 182 seats of which one in Surat withdrew at the eleventh hour. In campaigns, the BJP has outscored its rivals with a number of rallies by PM Narendra Modi and other senior party leaders, including Union ministers and seven chief ministers. The blitzkrieg continues for the second phase to be held on December 5. Counting is slated on December 8.

BJP’s Savar Kundala (Amreli district) candidate Mahesh Kaswala staged a massive road show on the last day of campaign on Tuesday. Pics/Dharmendra Jore

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s “Modi is Ravan” jibe has given the BJP an advantage ahead of the polling. The BJP says the remark has insulted the state of Gujarat. As far as the Congress is concerned, it has courted a controversy in the last few elections in Gujarat by making certain statements that were lapped up by the BJP to invoke Gujarati Pride.

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Touted as the BJP’s Team B, AAP chief and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has campaigned single-handedly. He has managed to create a hype he is known for. Both Congress and BJP are concerned about the damage the AAP will inflict, though they have been dismissing the Kejriwal outfit a non-starter in the backdrop of the AAP chief’s prediction that his party was going to sweep both phases with a gain of  93 seats, a simple majority to form the government, and install Isudan Gadhvi, who is contesting from Khambhalia in Dwarka district, as the CM.

BJP’s young nominee Kaushik Vekariya challenges the former opposition leader and Congressman Paresh Dhanani. Pic/Facebook

Bookies in Gujarat predicted only 12 seats for AAP. They have given the Congress 55-60 and the BJP 107 in the house of 182. They feel that the AAP will make a significant gain in the tribal-dominated parts of south Gujarat but its impact will be limited in Saurashtra.

The Congress lacked the teeth and went haywire in the last few days in the region that needed concerted efforts when the nearest rival BJP has poached its MLAs and neutralised the Patidar Andolan that gave the Congress massive traction in Saurashtra helping it win 28 of the 48 seats. The BJP had come down to 19 from 30, which led to a calculated planning for 2022. The leaders of the Patidar Andolan, including Hardik Patel, were inducted into the BJP fold and given tickets. In the bypolls, the Congress turncoats added to the BJP’s strength. Some of them have been dropped by the BJP.

Congress leader and former opposition leader Paresh Dhanani is locked in a fight with Kaushik Vekariya. Pic/Twitter

BJP toils to woo Patels

BJP and Congress insiders said that the AAP impact in south Gujarat could reflect to some extent in Patel-dominated districts of Saurashtra. “The Modi factor can neutralise anything and fortunately we are in a better position here this time,” said a senior BJP leader.

Tasked with deriving maximum support from the Patel community that had steered away, the BJP concentrated on the districts such as Surendra Nagar, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Somnath, Junagadh, Jamnagar and Rajkot, where it had suffered a humiliation in 2017. Coastal districts where the other backward classes dominate have been promised sops and welfare schemes. However, the main plank has been Hindutva and national security in the wake of agency actions in coastal parts, and, of course, a strong counter to the Congress’s accusations and remarks against PM Modi, who continues to carry an unparalleled public appeal and charisma in his home state.

The police and civil staff wait to collect EVMs from a central election office, in Gondal of Rajkot district, on Wednesday; (right) a cobbler in Junagadh, Rajubhai is impressed with the Aam Aadmi Party’s promises and expects it to perform very well

For Congress, Rahul Gandhi’s two rallies proved insufficient. No other Gandhi came down to Gujarat, leaving the campaign mostly to party president Kharge, the party CMs and state leaders, most of whom were holed up in their own districts or constituencies. BJP president J P Nadda didn’t think the AAP or any other factor could stop the BJP from outperforming the Congress and AAP. “People have made up their minds to vote for the BJP. The AAP has lost it in Goa and UP and will meet the same fate here as well,” he said. 

Saffron party’s pain points

But the BJP, too, has its own problems. It’s rare for the disciplined party and yet several ambitious leaders have rebelled against the BJP because they were upset over the fielding of turncoats and some fresh faces who have been imported from outside. In Junagadh, BJP’s Sanjay Koradiya faces a strong challenge against the Congress’s sitting MLA Bhikhabhai Joshi. Koridiya said he had already reached every home in the district because of his business of besan (gram flour) production. “People also know me for my work,” he said.

Joshi, an oddball Brahmin in the contest, said he has worked sincerely. “I don’t fear anybody and I don’t criticise my rivals,” he said flashing a victory sign. “Those who didn’t vote for me in 2017 will also support me this time,” he added.

Struggling to earn his daily wages, we met a cobbler in Junagadh, the only one we found in eight districts. Rajubhai cribbed against inflation and loss of work because of the people’s changed choice of footwear. “They don’t need shoeshine. You are the only one who came to polish your shoes since morning,” he said. It was late afternoon. He said he is impressed with the AAP’s promises and expects it to perform very well.

Key battles

In Amreli’s high-profile contest against the former opposition leader Paresh Dhanani, the BJP has gone for its young district unit president Kaushik Vekariya. Dhanani was inaccessible on Wednesday. Kaushik’s cousin Divyesh Vekariya told mid-day that the BJP was placed strongly. “At 36, Kaushikbhai has earned a good image by way of his work. The Coronavirus pandemic tested him and the people of Amreli district have given him full marks,” said Divyesh.

In the highly sensitive Gondal, which has Gujarat’s Big Ben (watch tower), BJP’s sitting MLA Gitaba Jadeja is up against Congress candidate Yatish Desai and AAP’s Nimisha Khunt. Considering its criminal history, the segment has been provided with an extra security force from the state and the Centre. On Wednesday, EVMs were being transported from a central hub to various locations under a tight security cover.

89
Seats that go to polls in first phase

788
No of candidates in the first phase

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