How are all the major parties expected to do at the polls? mid-day maps the biggies and explores the possibility of them trying their luck through either pre- or post-election alliances
The year 2017 is sure to begin with a bang — parties campaigning for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election in Mumbai and 11 other major cities across Maharashtra. The civic body has been a powerhouse for the ruling combine, especially the Shiv Sena, and hence, the small partner in the two-decade-old regime, the BJP, is going all out to snatch power from its saffron ally.
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Congress resurging but still very weak
The Congress had an unexpected run in the recently held civic polls when it finished second to the BJP. The results have enthused party workers, who think that a free hand and fair selection of candidates could help to revive the party.
The Congress has decided to snap ties with the NCP for the BMC polls. Representational pic
But now, in Mumbai, the number of aspirants has increased dramatically because of the latest poll results, but workers fear that intense factionalism and leadership issues would impact the party again.
Also, the party has decided to snap ties with the NCP for the BMC polls, as the latter doesn’t have a solid base in the metro.
Pact impossible?
After breaking away from the Sena just before the 2014 assembly polls, the BJP has gone on to become even stronger. It formed the government and then successfully sought Sena’s support to consolidate their hold. The role reversal has raised the party’s morale higher with the Sena buckling under pressure often.
The BJP has taken the lead in announcing that the next mayor would be its candidate. Representational pic
Will the Sena ally with the BJP, keeping its own interest aside? Will it agree for an equitable share for the BJP in a pre-poll alliance, or will the two go their separate ways?
At this point, the two seem to be headed for independent fights. The BJP has taken the lead in announcing that the next mayor would be its candidate. Sources said BJP cadre isn’t wiling for a pact with the Sena, primarily because the party has won civic polls in the semi-urban region despite the demonetisation move. It expects Mumbai to respond positively to the scheme as the Prime Minister has himself assured the city that the honest would not suffer anymore.
The BJP is banking on Marathi and non-Marathi votes to score over its ally-cum-rival.
Brash Raj’s MNS is no longer a menace
Call it superstition, but the Raj Thackeray-led party has got poll authorities to alter the design of its election symbol — steam engine — because of its downfall in the past five years. The ballot will now have MNS’s engine moving in from the other direction.
Political pundits don’t foresee the MNS doing a repeat of its 2012 show in the BMC. Representational pic
But a popular perception is that the MNS has lost steam. Political pundits don’t foresee the party doing a repeat of its 2012 show in the BMC. It is unlikely to go officially with any party, though it may have unofficial arrangements with a party of its choice.
Sena is playing its own game
The Sena knows that going with the BJP would mean sacrificing a lot. The BMC has kept the Sena’s heart beating, the party can’t easily give its lifeline up to the BJP. So what will it do then? It can insist for a better deal or simply say no to an alliance.
The Sena can insist that BJP gives it a better deal, or it can simply say no to an alliance. Representational pic
If it’s the latter, the two will go their own ways and come back to the table after the election to form a government. The numbers will decide who gets what.
In the meantime, the Sena is working full-time to find suitable candidates for all 227 wards. The BJP, on the other hand, seems to have a list of probables ready already.
Will AIMIM emerge as the dark horse?
The All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is expected to make inroads in Muslim-dominated wards as never before.
Assembly polls saw the AIMIM winning Byculla, giving a clear indication that it can eat into other parties’ Muslim votebank. Representational pic
Polarisation of Muslim votes happened in the assembly polls in which the AIMIM won Byculla and gave the Sena a run for its money in Bandra.
The AIMIM has the potential of emerging as a better alternative to the Samajwadi Party in the BMC, and will surely eat into Congress’s Muslim votebank.
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