China’s decline is rooted in its diminishing ability to sustain the rapid growth that once defined it.
New Global
The world is witnessing a seismic shift in the global power structure. For decades, China’s meteoric rise positioned it as the undisputed leader of the developing world and a challenger to Western dominance. However, cracks in its foundation are now glaringly evident. At the same time, India is emerging as the next global growth engine, poised to claim its place at the forefront of international affairs. The decline of China and the ascent of India marks the dawn of a new world order, an era where India’s resilience, dynamism, and strategic vision take center stage.
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China’s decline is rooted in its diminishing ability to sustain the rapid growth that once defined it. Years of industrial overdrive have wreaked havoc on the country’s natural resources. Half of China’s rivers have disappeared, and groundwater pollution has reached alarming levels, threatening agriculture and human health. Heavily reliant on imports for food and energy, China’s economic model is increasingly vulnerable to external shocks. Adding to this is a demographic crisis that has set the country on a path of irreversible decline. With a shrinking workforce and an aging population, China’s dependency ratio is projected to collapse to 66% by the 2050s, making it one of the world’s most unsustainable.
Politically, China’s authoritarian regime under Xi Jinping has further constrained its economic potential. Centralized power has stifled market reforms and entrepreneurial freedom, as policies increasingly prioritize state control over efficiency and innovation. Globally, China faces mounting resistance as the U.S. and its allies impose trade and technology restrictions to curb its influence. The country’s macroeconomic challenges are no less daunting. Its debt-to-GDP ratio has skyrocketed to a record 295.6%, surpassing even the U.S., while declining productivity growth signals inefficiencies in wealth generation. Moreover, China’s wealthiest citizens are moving their assets and families overseas, eroding confidence in its economic future.
India, on the other hand, is emerging as a vibrant and promising force in the global economy. With a median age of 27.6 years, India boasts one of the youngest populations in the world, a stark contrast to China’s aging society. This demographic dividend, combined with rising levels of education and skill development, is propelling India’s economic and social transformation. Unlike China’s autocratic regime, India benefits from a stable and democratic government that has charted an ambitious course for the nation’s future. Over the next two decades, India aims to sustain 8% GDP growth annually, expand its economy to $19 trillion by 2047, and create 600 million jobs, ensuring prosperity for its burgeoning population.
As McKinsey’s Bob Sternfels aptly puts it, “It’s not India’s decade, it’s India’s century.” This statement reflects India’s ability to shape the global economic and geopolitical landscape for generations to come.
India’s economic strategy is underpinned by an increasing focus on infrastructure and manufacturing, sectors that were historically underdeveloped in favor of services. The government’s commitment to building a net-zero economy by 2050 is set to attract global investment and enhance its global leadership in sustainability. Bloomberg Economics projects that by 2028, India’s contribution to global economic growth will surpass China’s, making up 25.2% of the global total compared to China’s 23.8%.
Nevertheless, China’s decline does not mean it will fade quietly. Historically, peaking powers have often responded to internal crises with aggression abroad. Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and post-Civil War U.S. all exhibited this pattern, and China is no exception. Faced with domestic turmoil, it has adopted an expansionist strategy, heightening tensions in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and along its border with India. Its partnerships with Russia, North Korea, and Iran further underscore its desperation to challenge Western dominance. However, these moves risk alienating China further from global trade networks, creating opportunities for India to deepen its alliances with like-minded democracies.
The current decade is likely to be one of turbulence and recalibration as China struggles to maintain its influence while India consolidates its gains. By the 2030s, a new global equilibrium may emerge, with India playing a central role in shaping international stability and fostering economic growth. The U.S., while still influential, may shift its focus inward after a period of sustained global dominance, paving the way for India to assume leadership in areas such as technology, climate change, and geopolitics.
India’s rise is not just about numbers; it represents a broader shift toward a more equitable and sustainable global order. As the world’s largest democracy, India embodies the values of resilience, diversity, and innovation. Its journey from a developing nation to a global superpower is a testament to its unwavering commitment to progress and its ability to harness its immense potential.
The world is at the cusp of a new era, one where India’s growth story inspires hope and confidence in a future defined by collaboration, sustainability, and shared prosperity ”Welcome to the Indian Century-a time for India to lead, innovate, and shine on the world stage”
Gaurav Gupta
(The author is Secretary of Jammu Club, J&K UT, Geopolitical Expert)
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