According to a Phillip Capital report, India could gain from Trump’s higher tariffs on China despite challenges such as tougher immigration policies, as the “China+1” strategy opens new trade avenues for India.
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According to a report by Phillip Capital, India may face a range of challenges under Donald Trump's administration, including higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies. However, the report also suggests that despite these obstacles, India could see substantial benefits if the US imposes increased tariffs on Chinese goods, as per ANI.
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Trump’s return as the President of the United States is expected to bring significant shifts, especially in international trade, tariffs, and immigration, potentially impacting various sectors in India. Trump’s “America First” stance could lead to tougher policies on immigration, which may affect Indian IT companies, as reported by ANI. However, with adaptive measures like local hiring and establishing near-shore centres, the Indian IT sector could manage these shifts.
The report highlights the potential positive outcomes of the "China+1" strategy, where global companies are increasingly seeking alternatives to China due to trade tensions. This approach could be advantageous for India if the government and corporate sectors take timely action to fill the gap left by China in sectors like manufacturing and technology, as suggested by ANI. In the medium to long term, India could leverage these changes to its benefit, strengthening its role in the global supply chain.
Trump’s administration is known for imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports, a trend likely to continue. While this could strain US-China trade relations, it might open doors for India to become a more significant trade partner with the US, particularly in areas like textiles, auto components, and consumer electronics. According to the report, such opportunities could emerge as more companies look to diversify their supply chains away from China, noted ANI.
On the energy front, Trump's inclination towards fossil fuels may lead to increased oil and gas production in the US. This could help stabilise energy prices, which would be beneficial for Indian oil refiners and gas utilities, according to ANI. Increased US infrastructure spending could also boost demand for metals, creating growth opportunities for Indian companies in the mining and metals sectors.
The report points out potential short-term impacts on India's electric vehicle (EV) component exports under Trump's administration. While the demand for EV components may experience a dip, hybrid vehicles might gain favour, offering some compensation to Indian manufacturers. Increased US infrastructure investment could benefit Indian firms involved in the production of truck components, as per ANI.
However, Trump's efforts to lower healthcare costs in the US might increase competition in the pharmaceutical sector. This could put pressure on Indian generic drug manufacturers, although export volumes to the US are expected to remain stable, the report adds.
Despite the recent 8% decline in the Nifty index due to foreign investor outflows and growth concerns, Phillip Capital remains optimistic about India’s economic and equity potential. The report encourages investors to view these declines as buying opportunities in key sectors like industrials, banking, and technology.
The report concludes that India’s ability to effectively implement the China+1 strategy will be essential in navigating these global trade shifts. The higher tariffs on Chinese products could create a unique opportunity for Indian exporters, especially in textiles, auto components, and consumer electronics, as companies worldwide look to reduce their dependence on China, ANI notes.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, India's positioning as a viable alternative to China could be pivotal in enhancing its trade relations with the US and expanding its role in the global market.
(With inputs from ANI)
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