Exit polls forecast a drop in BJP and NDA numbers in the state even as Modi magic is said to be working elsewhere
According to exit polls in Maharashtra, neither the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) nor NCP (Ajit Pawar) have done well. File Pic/Satej Shinde
Most exit polls have forecast a resounding return of the BJP-led NDA with gains across the south, West Bengal and Odisha, but the predictions for Maharashtra show that the ruling party could take a hit in the state that sends 48 MPs, the second highest after Uttar Pradesh. According to exit polls, in a scenario predicted differently than the national scene, the BJP’s numbers in Maharashtra will reduce, and its allies Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) will not do any better, thus restricting NDA’s numbers to much below the 2019 mark of 41 seats. According to some polls, the NDA will not be able to touch the 30-seat mark.
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On the Opposition side, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) will gain substantially, say the exit polls. The decrease in seats, a substantial one as suggested by the polls, will not mean any good for the BJP that will be defending itself and NDA partners in this year’s Assembly polls. More seats for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar will be their resurgence following party splits. Their rival camps, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar), will still be the Election Commission-endorsed parent outfits, but in reality, they will lose their ‘asli’ status in case of being doomed as forecast.
Very happy about the overall national exit polls, the BJP leaders haven’t accepted the forecast for Maharashtra, notwithstanding the fact they had to work much harder than the 2014 and 2019 general elections this time. PM Narendra Modi had to cover the maximum seats for apparent reasons. It had become evident that Modi alone could stonewall the tide; retain core BJP voters and influence the floating ones, while Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress fanned anti-Modi sentiment in their respective areas. Sympathy for Pawar and Thackeray remained one of the influential factors, while the Maratha resentment made things easier for the Opposition in some crucial seats. Yet, the BJP leaders insist that they will do better, much better. If not more, they will retain the previous numbers (41), they said.
The MVA, too, has dismissed both national and Maharashtra predictions. The opposition bloc expects more than 35 seats in Maharashtra. They have levelled various kinds of allegations against the BJP and media houses for the exit poll results that indicate Modi’s return. “It can’t be, it will never be,” said a Congress leader about the projections. “INDIA is forming the government,” he insisted.
Other than astute hopefuls like the Congress leader I spoke to, there are leaders in the MVA and MVA camps, who believe that the exit polls outcome for Maharashtra could be closer to the results on June 4. They have their own estimates, backed by the decades of experience. They do not see much gap between the numbers of two alliances. They expect BJP to be the single largest party, followed by the Thackeray Sena in the second place. The consensus seems to be on ‘50:50’, subject to the surprises the results spring.
If the exit polls turn into a reality, it will be understood that the Modi magic didn’t work in Maharashtra’s all 48 segments. It will indicate that the elections were influenced by state-level politics, party splits, new political alignments and social/caste issues.
Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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