The outcome of the result of the last few elections have proved that not only psephologists, but also political parties' strategists fail their maths on masses.
The outcome of the result of the last few elections have proved that not only psephologists, but also political parties' strategists fail their maths on masses.
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In the first instance, you can understand that exit poll is a mathematical science of prediction, and can go quite wrong. 
But the failure of party strategists in drafting policies is the real matter of concern.
Leaders like Arun Jaitley, Satish Chandra Mishra and Amar Singh, who have no mass support, are known more as strategists than anything else.
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Their survival in the party is only because of this art, as they do not enjoy mass support, the prime quality of a democracy.
But with each passing election, questions are being raised about their utility for respective parties. Arun Jaitley was a key strategist in the last Delhi assembly election.
By this time, he was over-confident of bringing success in the few states under his sphere of influence. The Mumbai terror attack shocked the whole nation.
Jaitley made the mistake of taking it as an opportunity to swing votes in his party's favour. He was the one who decided to publish an ad in all leading newspapers, but the move backfired and the party lost.
Strategists, unquestioningly, play an important role in ticket distribution and choosing the finest and most favourable candidates.
Jaitley had six long months to introspect and correct his mistakes before the parliamentary election. But, of course, even veteran strategists like himself failed to anticipate the big win. They had never thought there will be such a difference in the defeat margin.
BJP strategists had hired many managers for their campaign planning. They advised the party to adopt an extensive IT-based canvassing approach.
They campaigned through blogs. Millions of emails and SMSes were sent to voters. When I quizzed them, one of the backroom managers told me they were relying on both traditional and technology- based campaigns.
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If their IT-based campaigns had had any impact, it'd be reflected at least in metros like Mumbai and Delhi, but the party performed at its all time worst in these metros.
Parties, therefore, should think twice about the role of election managers. There should be a clear difference in the role of an astute strategist, funds manager and troubleshooter.
The time has come for parties to rely more on grassroot workers and leaders who perform for the public. The leaders who decide strategies inside an air-conditioned room aren't required to deal with mass management.
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They have not much at stake, as they have many more engagements to tend to. Only those who can marry themselves to the party, for life and death, need to take up the job.
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Now leaving the party to its fate, Jaitley will fly to South Africa to watch the IPL finals. So what if he lost his own?
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