Both Ashok Chavan and Uddhav Thackeray give their parties reasons to celebrate, while turning the situation quite miserable for BJP
Last week, BJP received severe blows from unexpected quarters. High on hopes, the ruling party went down miserably to Congress in Nanded. The public mandate was so huge and unimaginable even for Congress, which won 73 seats out of 81. A day after the Nanded verdict, Shiv Sena staged a coup in Mumbai, by effecting a defection of six MNS corporators, shattering BJP's long-cherished dream of bagging power in Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).
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These two political events are interwoven. They serve a sole purpose of propelling BJP into a difficult position, and Sena, was a common factor in them. Uddhav's masterstroke not only hit the BJP, but also affected a depleted MNS. Raj has been pushed in a corner from where the party's chances of revival would be increasingly remote.
State Congress president Ashok Chavan and Sena president Uddhav Thackeray together orchestrated BJP's debacle in Nanded. Thackeray took a risk of getting decimated in the city where Sena held 14 civic seats and one city MLA. He left the electoral field to the Congress, and thereby greatly aided Chavan's cause. Sena celebrated as if it was a champion in stopping the frenemy's winning streak in the state.
Sena's surgical strike
Even before Nanded happened an incensed BJP had enough reasons to get even with Sena, which wants power in BMC. This time Uddhav's team actually managed it with such precision and secrecy that even some top leaders in Sena were caught unawares.
We can only imagine what the BJP camp would have thought when Sena executed a defection. A win in a civic bypoll had inched BJP closer to Sena's strength in BMC. According to BJP's thinking, getting some corporators on board would switch its role from being the 'guardians of transparency' in the country's richest civic body to rulers. Many in the party still repent missing the bus early this year, though they were in a close range of installing their Mayor.
But the script changed overnight. Knowing that he would have to deal with the BJP anytime soon, Uddhav went for a covert operation that people in the Sena say, had started much before it actually fructified on Friday. He robbed his estranged cousin Raj of six BMC members and reaffirmed a belief that he could even attempt what BJP says is nothing but horse-trading. Raj hasn't reacted yet, but it would be interesting to see how he keeps his 'mini-flock' together. Most of the people in MNS with electoral merit have already gone to Sena or BJP.
Uddhav said he has done nothing wrong. "It's actually gharvapasi for the corporators. They were with Sena earlier. And why raise a hue and cry when we get people on our side? What did BJP do ahead of all the elections in the past four years? "
Future tense
While Congress may bask in the glory of its Nanded win and work further on the hype it has created, Sena and BJP are headed for a phase that would be all the more tense for them. It has already been concluded that the current ruling partners would not forge a pre-poll alliance in future. But Sena's concerns should be different from that of BJP.
Barring a few places, the voters have established a trend of supporting national parties in the polls that were held in last three years. Regional parties such as Sena and Nationalist Congress Party have been rejected big time. A divisive force like AIMIM has lost its footing and Muslim voters have gone back to Congress. Polarisation of voters hasn't changed any further, but Congress and BJP have emerged as new beneficiaries. For example, in Nanded, Muslims stood rock-solid behind Congress, and at the same time, BJP increased its voting percentage very significantly though it did not win many seats. Sena's voting share dipped, and so did NCP and AIMIM's.
Nanded may represent what is expected in the coming days, especially where the Congress has a strong local leadership that believes in working hard despite odds. Regional satraps in NCP (it still has some who are lying low) may also see an opportunity to rise.
Then comes the BJP, which has put everything at stake in its bid to seek yet another term in the Centre and state. It is going through turbulence, which the leaders expect to be intermittent, not permanent. Nanded has showcased what serious damage some overconfident poll managers could do. Party insiders are asking as to why, in the first place, such leaders were put in charge there? Nepotism ruled the roost in selecting candidates and imports from other parties went for a toss. Again, if BJP considers Nanded a representative of the political game that it is expected to counter, it will have to do a lot of corrections in future.
Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore. Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com
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