C Y Gopinath: Muslims growing faster than Hindus?

So many Hindus have told me this that I decided to do a fact check

WHERE I LIVE, in a city called Bangkok, when I think of Muslims I think of dried fruits. In the dried fruits counter of supermarkets, there will be two young women in beige or green Malay-style head-covers dispensing apricots, almonds, walnuts and so forth. The only women you might see in black hijabs are likely to be tourists from Middle Eastern countries around Soi 3, Sukhumvit, the so-called Arab gully.

According to the 2015 census here, there are 28,92,311 Muslims in Thailand, making up roughly 4.29% of the population. Only about 3,65,000 of them live in Bangkok, selling dried fruits and other things, so no wonder I only see them in pairs. The bulk of them, 22,27,613, may be found in southern Thailand, bordering the mainly Muslim Malaysia. Here they constitute over 24% of the population.

Polygamy is not legal in Thailand, but not a felony either, so Muslims here, like elsewhere, may marry more than one woman under the sharia law. You'd think the Thai, with an average family size of 3.2, would be worried that Muslims would outbreed them and take over Thailand.

Funny thing - no one here is scared of Muslims; they all live in peace together. Buddhists aren't killing Muslims; you can eat beef, pork, lamb or chicken, whichever pleases you; and no one is saying that only Buddhists can be true Thais.

WHERE I COME FROM, Mumbai in Incredible India with an inverted 'i', things are different. It seems many Hindus are seriously scared that Muslims are taking over India because they marry so much and produce so many kids. Some of these trembling Hindus are really clever people, Harvard-educated even. "Look," they tell me reasonably. "I'm not a Hindu fundamentalist by any means. I'm rational and reasonable, and God knows I have nothing against Muslims, but damn it, man, when you have four wives producing babies for you, that's exponential growth right there. It's just a matter of time before we're Pakistan #2."

Actually, if you were not a very critical thinker, but happy to get your facts and opinions at parties and bars and Facebook, you might even have nodded, thinking the fellow had a point.

But I happen to be reading an interesting book called Factfulness, by Hans Gosling, Swedish physician, academic, statistician, and founder of the Gapminder Foundation. His special interest is why, in a world drowning in fake news and numbers, most people hang on to absurd, false beliefs even after receiving solid factual proof that reality is different.

I WAS UP LATE reading about religions, censuses, myths and realities. I want to share them with you, because my own perceptions were rocked last night. So first let me quiz you a little. Read the questions below and see which answer you think is right.

1. Of India's population, Muslims make up about
a. 14%
b. 36%
c. 46%

2. The size of an average Hindu family is
a. 3.62 persons
b. 4.15 persons
c. 4.35 persons

3. An average Muslim family has
a. 3.8 persons
b. 5.15 persons
c. 6.8 persons

4. The size of an average Muslim family is
a. Going up
b. Going down
c. More or less the same

5. How much larger is an average Muslim than an average Hindu family?
a. 0.8 persons
b. 2.7 persons
c. 3.26 persons

6. Which of the following statements is true?
a. Muslims family size is shrinking faster than Hindu families
b. Hindu family size is shrinking faster than Muslims
c. Both Hindu and Muslim family sizes are growing

The correct answers are 1: a; 2: c; 3: b; 4: a; 5: a; 6: a. These figures are from the religious census data released by the Home Ministry in May 2016, based on the 2011 census.

IN A SENTENCE, 14 per cent of Indians are Muslims; their families are shrinking faster than any other religious group.The average Hindu family has 4.35 persons, while the Muslim family has 5.15 persons.

Two resounding facts emerge -
1. Muslim families are shrinking faster than Hindu families.
2. A Hindu family is almost as large as a Muslim family, just 0.8 persons less. However, because general population is growing, the number of Muslims increased, obviously. It stood at 17.22 crores in 2011, an increase of 24.6%. But the number of Hindus also grew proportionately in that period, and there are 96.63 crore Hindus today.

There's something ludicrous about 96 crores people quaking in fear of 17 crore people with rapidly shrinking families. A minuscule percentage of them might be terrorists and trouble-makers, but with the Hindu population so much larger, their vandals, lynchers and mosque destroyers would be overwhelmingly higher, too.
Our own government's numbers tell a story different from the demagogues of the BJP and RSS. You get to choose what to believe.

Here, viewed from there. C Y Gopinath, in Bangkok, throws unique light and shadows on Mumbai, the city that raised him. You can reach him at cygopi@gmail.com Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com

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