Big third wave unlikely in India: Health experts

Credit ‘hybrid’ immunity, vaccination for low case numbers; epidemiologists had predicted a third wave in October and November because of large gatherings during Navratri and Diwali

Is the worst of the Covid crisis behind India? As cases dip three weeks after Diwali, the answer is a possible yes, say several health experts, attributing the downslide to a large section of the population already exposed to the virus during the deadly second wave and a stepped-up vaccination campaign by the government. Though there are always imponderables, including the possibility of a new, transmissible variant and the onset of winter in large parts of the country, a third wave as devastating as the second one is unlikely, they said while advising caution and vigilance.

A cyclist rides past a mural depicting Covid testing in New Delhi. Pic/AFP

Covid cases may rise, perhaps across late December-February, but its impact will be milder than what India experienced in the second wave when thousands died and many thousands more were hospitalised. “It may not take off in a coordinated manner across the country, provided no far more transmissible variant comes along,” explained Gautam Menon, professor, Departments of Physics and Biology, Ashoka University, in Sonepat.

Several epidemiologists had predicted a third wave peaking in October and November because of large gatherings in the festive season, which includes Durga Puja and Diwali. But the much feared spike thankfully hasn’t happened. On Tuesday, India recorded 7,579 new coronavirus infections, the lowest in 543 days, taking the country’s total tally of Covid-19 cases to 3,45,26,480, while active cases were the lowest in 536 days, according to Union Health Ministry data. “What it suggests is that the impact of the second wave, where a substantial fraction of Indians were infected, continues to manifest itself,” said Menon.

A senior citizen receives a vaccine shot in Chennai. File/AFP

Virologist Anurag Agrawal agreed with Menon, saying the low number of cases can be attributed to a high fraction of the population being infected by the Delta variant during the second wave, followed by most adults having received at least one vaccine dose further boosting the immune response. “Serosurveys have shown that the majority of the population is likely to have been infected,” said Agrawal, director of the CSIR-Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, New Delhi. Immunologist Vineeta Bal said two vaccine doses lead to a significant decrease in the severity of the disease. “If there was a spike looming in our future, we should have detected signs of it already,” said Menon.

3,45,26,480
Total no. of Coronavirus cases in India so far

4,66,147
Total no. of deaths due to the virus in India so far

1,13,584
Total no. of active cases in India

7,579
No. of new infections in the country on Tuesday

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