SkyMet Weather predicts ‘healthy normal’ monsoons in 2021

In its Southwest Monsoon Forecast Guidance 2021, the independent weather forecaster has revealed that the monsoons will be average for the third consecutive year

Independent weather forecasting agency SkyMet Weather has said that India will experience a healthy normal southwest monsoon rainfall in 2021, and thus help with agriculture and economic growth. The agency has predicted it at 103 per cent (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6 mm from June to September. 

While there is a 60 per cent probability of the monsoon being ‘normal’ this year, there is only a 15 per cent chance of it being ‘above normal’. While 96-104 per cent is in the normal category, above normal falls in the 105 to 110 per cent category of the LPA. On the other hand, there is only a 10 per cent chance of excess rainfall, and there is no probability of drought.

The agency has released the forecast after their preliminary forecast which they have released on January 31, earlier this year. 

SkyMet predicts that in June there will be about 177 mm of rainfall, followed by 277 mm, 256 mm and 197 mm in July, August and September respectively. While there is a 70 per cent chance of there being normal rain in June, July has a higher probability of normal rain at 75 per cent followed by 80 per cent in August. However, September is predicted to be different as there is a 60 per cent chance of above normal rainfall, as compared to a 30 per cent chance of it falling in the normal category. 

Geographically for June, SkyMet said that while normal rains are expected in the east and central parts, the plains of north and northeast India could be at some risk. With West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand are seen to be deficit, but there are going to be good rains this time, according to the agency. There is a possibility of excess rains in the central parts in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. 

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