Maharashtra Election 2024: Haryana poll results give BJP, Sena (UBT) bargaining chips

Sena (UBT) asks Congress to decide whether it wants allies or not; BJP gets an edge in seat-sharing with Mahayuti partners

The aftershocks of the Haryana election results are being felt in Maharashtra. They have given two prominent parties from opposing alliances—the Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiv Sena (UBT)—an opportunity to mount pressure on their partners in seat-sharing talks. Shiv Sena (UBT) felt that the Congress could not do without allies and it was time for the national party to decide whether it wanted to go solo in the elections. The victorious BJP, who has the upper hand in Mahayuti, has been empowered further.

Both alliances are in the final stages of their seat-sharing talks. It is said that the announcements may happen any day soon—before or after the election is notified next week. The Maha Vikas Aghadi’s joint press conference is likely to happen on Dussehra, but nobody is sure whether the seat-sharing formula will be made public that day. In Mahayuti, the finality is still being worked out because the BJP wants its allies to put forth candidates having a very strong electoral merit if the Shinde Sena and NCP (Ajit Pawar) want particular constituencies. The BJP doesn’t want to contest anything less than 150-160 of 288 seats, the rest to be shared by the allies. It has led to a tussle between Shinde Sena and NCP. Both want a major share from the remaining seats. 

Poster in Dadar calling for Uddhav Thackeray to be next CM. Pic/Ashish Raje

Salvo from Sena (UBT)

Sena (UBT) said on Wednesday that the Congress should decide whether it wanted to contest without the allies, adding that it was Congress’s solo run that actually caused a debacle in Haryana. The party’s chief spokesperson Sanjay Raut extended the editorial line the party mouthpiece Saamana took while advising the Congress to learn from the Haryana defeat. “In Haryana, the Congress lost because it kept prospective allies at bay. But I.N.D.I.A won in Jammu and Kashmir. The trailing of the Congress in Haryana is not good for I.N.D.I.A. There is a lot for the Maharashtra Congress leaders to learn from the Haryana upset, which happened because of the local leaders’ overconfidence and arrogance,” read the editorial.

Raut said Congress was like BJP when it comes to alliances. “It does not give importance to regional parties where it is strong, but seeks their help where it is weak. They should decide whether they want to fight solo in Maharashtra, so that we can chart out our own course,” said Raut, adding that the Congress knew how to lose a winning match.

Raut’s party boss, Uddhav Thackeray had reiterated, on Tuesday, that the Congress and NCP-SP should decide their CM face. “I will support the selection. I have never said I will be the CM or come back,” he had told the party’s civil society supporters. Thackeray’s associate Raut later mounted pressure further, underlining the party’s wish and willingness to project Thackeray as the CM candidate. The Congress leadership and Sharad Pawar, who both are confident of winning more seats than the Thackeray Sena, haven’t agreed to any such projection.

According to insiders, the crux of the matter is that the Sena (UBT) goes by the 2019 elections in which it was the single-largest partner in the MVA whereas the Congress and NCP-SP point out that they outperformed the ally in the Lok Sabha polls. However, Sharad Pawar’s outfit has decided to contest fewer seats than the allies and concentrate more on winning as many, leaving the Congress and Sena wrestling for favourable and more numerous seats.

Responding to Raut, state Congress chief Nana Patole said that the situations in Haryana and Maharashtra were different. “Congress fights elections with its allies, as was seen in the Lok Sabha elections,” he said, issuing a warning that accusations against his party would not be tolerated.

Friction in Mahayuti

It is no secret that CM Eknath Shinde and DyCM Ajit Pawar are under pressure to concede to the BJP, more so after the major partner’s extraordinary performance that has beaten anti-incumbency in Haryana using some effective social engineering. Maharashtra may need social engineering different from Haryana, and it is evident from the state cabinet decisions that the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to extend economic benefits to the various communities, whether small or large. Haryana’s Dalits consolidated against the upper-caste Jats. Specific castes and communities have already been marked in Maharashtra for standing against each other. BJP’s strength, as usual, is OBCs and smaller communities, while the allies are led by Maratha politicians who are expected to help the alliance even as the community is waging a quota war, against the BJP in particular. 

Maharashtra’s Lok Sabha outcome was a damper for BJP. So was Haryana. The two states that went to polls together in the past were delinked this year. Haryana happened first and sprang up an outstanding merit for the BJP, reaffirming the BJP workers’ belief that their party could do better, even in unfavourable conditions, if fought without the allies. An observer said that just like Haryana, where Congress was BJP’s principal rival, the picture some weeks ago wasn’t as rosy for the ruling parties of Maharashtra. “The Haryana verdict has given an edge to the BJP. It is to be seen how it manages to alter the scenario, painted gloomy by the Opposition, to its advantage,” said the observer.

Commenting on the Mahayuti’s internal tussle, Patole suggested to the media persons that they attempt to dig out why CM Shinde had taken a break from work on his return from Delhi where he had met the BJP’s high command. “We, in the MVA, are fine. There are more issues in the Mahayuti,” he said. 

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