Women's T20 World Cup 2024 | India vs Australia: What's at stake for Harmanpreet Kaur and Co.?

Team India (Pic: AFP)

Following India's 58-run defeat to New Zealand in their tournament opener, Harmanpreet Kaur-led side found themselves in a precarious position, requiring significant victories in their remaining three matches to secure a spot in the top four.

Wins against Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the latter by a convincing margin of 82 runs, have allowed them to recover their Net Run Rate (NRR), which now stands at +0.576.

India's final match is against Australia on Sunday, October 13, and a substantial win is essential to improve their NRR of +2.524. While a loss would complicate their chances, they would not be eliminated from contention.

Below is a breakdown of potential outcomes:

If India win against Australia

A victory against Australia would elevate India to six points. The margin of victory will be crucial; depending on the outcome of Australia's earlier match against Pakistan, a decisive win could see India surpass Australia's NRR, potentially placing them at the top of the points table and ensuring qualification. However, if India secures a narrow win, their qualification scenario could become more complicated.

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As it stands, New Zealand and Pakistan are the other teams capable of reaching six points from the group. New Zealand is favored to win against a winless Sri Lanka, which would positively impact their NRR. The match between Pakistan and New Zealand follows the India-Australia encounter, and both teams will be acutely aware of the scenarios required for progression. India will hope that Pakistan and New Zealand do not exceed their NRR in that match, regardless of the outcome.

The optimal scenario for India would involve defeating Australia while simultaneously hoping for losses from both Pakistan and New Zealand in their respective matches. This would render the Pakistan-New Zealand game inconsequential, as either team would finish with a maximum of four points.

If India lose to Australia

A defeat would leave India with only four points, necessitating a favorable outcome in other matches. They would depend heavily on NRR, as one of New Zealand or Pakistan is guaranteed to accumulate at least four points. With both teams currently at two points each and two games remaining, India would need them to lose at least one match. Ultimately, qualification would hinge on NRR calculations.

India faces elimination if they lose to Australia and either New Zealand or Pakistan wins both of their remaining fixtures.