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The Asia Cup 2023 is poised to be a fiercely contested event with subcontinental giants India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka pitting their wits against Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and newcomer Nepal. While it's too early to determine the final four teams, making early predictions certainly won't hurt.

Indeed, the odds strongly favour one of the three established cricketing nations to emerge as the winners. Sri Lanka are the defending champions but their team management is fretting over injuries to a number of star names who would have been regulars in the squad. With no Dushmantha Chameera and Dilshan Madushanka, Sri Lanka's pace-bowling infirmary ward has seen quite a few additions of late. Lahiru Kumara also finds himself entangled in a recent injury setback.

The injury troubles extend to the spin department. Leg-spinner Wanindu Hasaranga, the country's white-ball specialist since his ODI debut in 2017, is still on the road to recovery from a grade-two strain in the thigh and is likely to sit out the group stage. There is a lack of certainty over Hasaranga's recovery timeline, and although there are a string of options to replace him, including all-rounder Dushan Hemantha, the difference in quality will certainly be difficult to compensate for. The batting department is no different either. Top-order batsmen Kusal Perera and Avishka Fernando testing positive for Covid-19 only added to the Lankans' woes.

The opening group stages again have clear two favourites to advance from each pool. Or maybe, three.

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka face Afghanistan before playing each other, while India and Pakistan will play each other and Nepal in the group stage.

Also Read: Asia Cup: Cricket's biggest rivalry returns

There are enough reasons to consider that the Asia Cup is more of a tri-series than anything else. That a three-way battle for the coveted title will be among India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka is not too difficult to predict, although Bangladesh will firmly hope that one of the sides might tumble to give them an outside chance, which is fair, to inhabit the top four.

Group A

Pakistan: This could be the year when Pakistan finally breaks their Asia Cup drought dating back to 2012. Having ascended to the summit of the one-day international rankings, they are rated at 113.483, surpassing Australia's 113.286 and India's 112.638. Although Pakistan's middle-order conundrum seems far from resolved, their deeper batting line-up will work wonders throughout the tournament. In fact, the lineup is such that it will hardly even compromise the potency of their bowling attack. With a pace attack so fast, furious and lethal, it will be interesting to see how India fares in their opener against the arch-rivals.

Prediction: Runners-up

Key Players: With a staggering strike rate of 89.25, captain Babar Azam has proven to be a consistent run-scorer and a dynamic top-order batter who can accelerate the innings when needed. One cannot really look beyond him at the moment as he is truly the best in the team.

Nepal: Debutants Nepal will look to continue their fine run of form during the Asia Cup. Although they are placed with Asian heavyweights India and Pakistan in the same group, we must not forget how the same XI scripted a miraculous comeback in the ICC World Cup League 2, winning 11 of their last 12 games, to seal a berth for the ODI World Cup Qualifier 2023. This is also the second time the side has qualified for the Asia Cup since 2002, when they finished runners-up in the ACC Trophy. But the tournament was never held.

Prediction: Last in Group A

Key Players: The experience of Rohit Paudel and former Delhi Capitals spinner Sandeep Lamichhane could come in handy, just in case.

India: India are clear favourites in the tournament, with several key players making a comeback from injuries. Shreyas Iyer, who is likely to come in at number four, is coming off a serious back injury. Meanwhile, KL Rahul, India's number five, could miss the group stage matches and has been out of action for an extended period due to a niggle.

Star pacer Jasprit Bumrah has had a successful Ireland series worth of international action since September last year, while Prasidh Krishna did well to reclaim his place in India's attack a year after a lower-back injury forced him to warm the bench.

India tamed a mighty New Zealand and later Sri Lanka, earlier this year, sweeping both series at home, but their potentially fragile batting line-up lay exposed at the hands of Australia. More recently, the Men in Blue clinched a three-game series against West Indies with a 2-1 victory.

Prediction: Winners

Key Players: The Men in Blue is bolstered by the return of Bumrah, Rahul and Iyer to the ODI setup. Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma need to rediscover their big-hitting form to stamp their authority on the tournament. Rahul Dravid will most likely try out combinations which he would want to field for the ODI World Cup.

Group B

Sri Lanka: The Lankans, without any doubt, will top the group. The real question, however, is whether or not they will retain the title. They could be locked in a neck-and-neck battle with Pakistan after the group stage draws to an end, but the latter convincingly hold the upper hand. Despite a winning spree across formats, an array of injuries and a lack of bowling options compound Sri Lanka's Asia Cup troubles.

Prediction: Third

Key Players: With both Kusal Mendis and Dinesh Chandimal ranked among the best in Asia Cup history, the onus will be on the duo to score mountains of runs and keep the opposition at bay.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh could make it through to the final four but their progress from then on looks less likely. Their strategy to field an additional batsman may also backfire. Shakib Al Hasan's captaincy will be the cynosure of all eyes as they take on Sri Lanka in the opener.

Prediction: Fourth

Key Players: The inclusion of all-rounders Shakib and Mehidy Hasan Miraz indicates Bangladesh's commitment to adding depth to their roster. Miraz's riveting century against India last December was nothing short of spectacular. His mighty leg-side strokes sending the ball flying over the boundary ropes still remain etched in our memories.

Afghanistan: Labelled as the ‘dark horse', Afghanistan appears to have little chance of going through to the top four, although their confidence will be riding high after their convincing ODI series win over Bangladesh.

Prediction: Last in Group B

Key Players: The side boasts a talented pool of young players on the back of a strong bowling attack spearheaded by Rashid Khan and Mujeeb Ur Rahman. Expect Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran to spring up a surprise in the batting department.