What a loss or draw in Melbourne means for India's WTC final qualification

Nitish Kumar Reddy celebrates maiden Test half-century (Pic: Amit Shah)

The ongoing fourth Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series has placed the visitors in a challenging position. Australia posted a commanding total of 474 runs in their first innings, with Steve Smith leading the charge with 140 runs.

Debutant Sam Konstas contributed a solid 60, while Usman Khawaja (57) and Marnus Labuschagne (72) also made key contributions.

In response, the Indian batting lineup has struggled, with only Yashasvi Jaiswal managing to make a significant impact. The team finds itself at 325 for 7, trailing by 149 runs. With seven sessions still to be played, Australia currently hold the upper hand.

What happens if India draw in Melbourne?

Should India manage a draw, Australia's percentage points (PCT) will drop to 57.29, while India's PCT will also fall to 54.62. In this scenario, a victory in the final Test in Sydney could propel India's PCT past Australia's, significantly improving their chances of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final. However, for Australia to stay ahead, they would need to win both Test matches against Sri Lanka.

What happens if India lose in Melbourne?

A loss in Melbourne would leave India trailing in the series 1-2, with just the final match in Sydney to play. Such a defeat would substantially diminish India's chances of qualifying for the WTC Final. India's PCT would drop from 55.88 to 52.78, while Australia's would rise from 58.89 to 61.45, further consolidating their position at the top of the standings.

Can India still qualify for the WTC Final if they lose in Melbourne?

Currently placed 3rd in the WTC standings, India would remain in that position despite a loss in Melbourne. However, such a defeat would significantly hurt their prospects. To stay in contention for the WTC Final, India must win the final Test in Sydney and hope for favorable results elsewhere.