Who will conquer Ajit Pawar, the undefeated?

NCP leader Ajit Pawar during at Vidhan bhavan. File pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

Three years after forming a government with the Bharatiya Janata Party that lasted 72 hours, Nationalist Congress Party's Ajit Pawar is back in the limelight. All eyes are on the former deputy chief minister amid speculations of him exiting the party with a sizable number of MLAs to join hands with the BJP once again.

There have been talks in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), too, about possible defections. Calling out the BJP for trying to split the NCP just like it did the Shiv Sena, UBT Sena's mouthpiece Saamana said NCP boss Sharad Pawar had told Uddhav Thackeray that nobody in his party wanted to join the rivals willingly, but their families were being targeted (by the central probe agencies). If anyone joins the BJP, then it would be a personal decision and not of the party, the editorial added. This has given credence to talks that all is not well in the NCP.

Recently, Sharad Pawar showcased his love for a corporate house that faces the Opposition's wrath, but when he tried to salvage his position by trying to power the efforts to unite the Opposition against the BJP, his own house came in the eye of the storm. A split NCP would change the face of Maharashtra politics, which was already altered last June owing to a divided Sena. The possibility of the NCP becoming weak can bring the Savarkar controversy-mired Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) even closer in the state.

Also Read: Congress reaches out to Uddhav Thackeray

Union Home Minister Amit Shah's visit to Mumbai last weekend gave further push to speculations. Ajit Pawar promptly denied meeting the BJP high command in Mumbai on Saturday, or elsewhere last week on a day he was reported to be out of reach.

On Sunday, he was in Nagpur for an MVA rally, but said he would not speak, because an agreement of the coalition allowed only two from each party to speak at joint public gatherings. From the NCP, party state president Jayant Patil and leader from Nagpur Anil Deshmukh had been picked, Ajit added. Interestingly, after the first MVA rally in Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (formerly Aurangabad), Ajit Pawar was asked about going soft on BJP leaders, including Devendra Fadnavis, and in response he had said that if given an opportunity to speak in Nagpur, he would definitely attack Fadnavis and others.

About the shift, if any

Most political parties and legal experts say the government will not collapse by virtue of the Supreme Court verdict. They are of the opinion that since the SC had questioned a prayer for reinstatement of the government that went out because the CM (Uddhav Thackeray) resigned without facing a trust vote, the BJP-Shinde Sena government's protection was guaranteed. So, does the BJP really need Ajit Pawar and his men (the number that gives protection under the defection law) right away or when Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and 15 other MLAs are disqualified but do not impact the government's majority in the House? The situation will arise only after it becomes clear who decides disqualification - the Supreme Court or the speaker. If the matter goes to the Speaker, it would stretch until the government is in a position to face the next elections under the Shinde-Fadnavis duo. Even if disqualification happens, it would only reduce the total strength of the Vidhan Sabha, while allowing the BJP-Shinde Sena a majority. Things may alter if the rest of the qualified colleagues of Shinde, who will not be a CM then because of disqualification, chart their own course. And, in case of a change of guard due to Shinde's exit, the BJP will not go without planning for the future.

Will Ajit Pawar and his men come into the picture then?

But, why would the BJP make yet another outsider a CM when the previous one had been a cause of upset within its rank and file, which wanted Fadnavis at the helm? A consensus could be reached if Ajit Pawar formally joins the BJP with his trusted men ahead of the polls, and helps his new party gain a good number in the Lok Sabha and a magic number in the Vidhan Sabha, fighting against his own and those in the MVA. Hypothesis, ifs and buts notwithstanding, Ajit Pawar is a big catch, if netted. His uncle forced him out from the BJP government in 2019, purportedly against his wishes, because the former deputy CM has repeatedly said, "he is a person who keeps the word". It will be interesting to see whether the uncle blesses the nephew's exit or uses options at his disposal to stop him from switching over to the BJP once again.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore'

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