Uddhav may be down, but Shinde has a long way to the top!

Uddhav Thackeray. PIC/ASHISH RAJE; Eknath Shinde. Pic/Ashish Rane

With his party's name and symbol gone, everybody is talking about Uddhav Thackeray's unending problems. But it is also time someone talked about the challenges before Eknath Shinde, who rose to the CM's office unseating his then Shiv Sena boss. Recognised by the Election Commission of India as the new chief of Shiv Sena, Shinde has taken away everything possible from Thackeray, and may deny the son of the Sena founder, the late Balasaheb Thackeray, many more things, such as the party shakhas, other properties (barring the Shiv Sena bhavan and mouthpiece Saamana because they are not owned by the Shiv Sena), party funds and legislative offices in the near future. The Shinde group may even create hurdles if Thackeray seeks a party name sounding like the parent party and a symbol akin to the one or the same one he used in the Andheri bypoll. The possibilities are infinite. But, can Shinde really appropriate the legacy of the firebrand Sena founder? In question here is the inheritance the voters are going to decide through the ballot.

The ECI has transferred to the CM the legal rights of the party, leaving a contest to be fought further in the Supreme Court and in the people's court. One claimant cites the father-son relation. The other swears by the non-genetic one purportedly established by the ideology of the late Bal Thackeray. The litmus test is slated to be held in the local body polls in 2023, and 2024's Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. And, it is not going to be as easy as Shinde may be thinking. An entire reversal for Shinde's Sena is expected if the Supreme Court decides in favour of Uddhav, as far as the name and symbol are concerned.

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Considering the urgency, the SC has been showing in the cases related to the fall of the Maharashtra government, the disqualification pleas and its counters are expected to be judged within a month or so. By Monday, the apex court will get the Thackeray's group's petition challenging the CEC's order. With allegations of use of government influence and money, the legal war will go on, with the Thackeray group trying to create a public perception of it being a victim who needs public sympathy-induced votes. No matter whether or not it retains the name and ‘bow and arrow'. Painted villain-de-piece Shinde and his alliance partners, the Bharatiya Janata Party, will definitely be working to minimise the sympathy factor that primarily appears to be the mainstay of Thackeray group in the current fight. No wonder then that he told his supporters very emotionally, "I have nothing in my hands, but I'm not lost and wrecked."

Let's see what happens if Shinde gets a favourable verdict in the Supreme Court and his MLAs are saved from disqualification. His future passage will still be dotted with ditches. A rough ride when he, as an independent entity, sits to talk about seat sharing with the BJP. A tough time when he tries to shift a majority of the united Sena's hardcore votes influenced by Hindutva and loyalty for Thackerays. The share has been roughly between 18 and 20 per cent in the recent elections. The fact is that the BJP too has been eyeing the votes wherever it needs them, and its pact with Shinde's Sena has given the national party leeway to work on the crucial vote bank through the new partner. And, it is to be seen what freedom Shinde gets while planning the polls for his own unit - be it in its old format or the recognised one, depending on the forthcoming legal outcome. The BJP will never let its upper-hand slip a centimetre when it comes to electioneering alone or with an ally. The elections held after Shinde's elevation stand testimony to the observation. The BJP will not leave any plant unwatered to reap a good harvest that Shinde's revolt has sown. It is yet to be seen what lands in Shinde's lap.

One is mistaken if (s)he thinks all's hunky dory in the Shinde camp. His men are buoyed beyond limit by the recent developments. They feel high because ministerial berths and other seats of power have eluded them so far. Every person wants more from the party with each passing day. The competition has become cut-throat and keeping them together is a task in itself. More leaders from other parties will enter the Shinde Sena, but not before Uddhav is delivered a final blow. Like the BJP, Shinde
cannot afford to tell the dissidents to mend their ways and behave. His run has just begun under the watchful eyes of the big brother, who doesn't do politics for others' benefit.

Small fry know it best. Fortunate ones get to float in a pan full of oil before being placed on a platter. Others don't get that lucky.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore

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