The M Factor

Sayyad Shahana Wajid Ali and her family show their ink-marked fingers after casting their votes in the Andheri East Assembly by-elections, on November 3. Thackeray Sena has claimed that a sizeable number of Muslim voters backed its winner Rutuja Latke. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

There was a time the Muslim votes mattered most for the Congress. Presently, the party longs for a sizeable Muslim share that can swing the election results its way. The BMC polls will be no different, because the Congress has another party, the Shiv Sena (Thackeray), in competition to woo Muslim voters. Uddhav Thackeray has made his intentions loud and clear, and has evoked an expected response from arch rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party, that has accused its one-time partner of minority appeasement. The BJP began a city-wide campaign on Sunday to thwart Thackeray's attempt.

The Congress, which had a maximum number of Muslim representatives in the outgoing BMC house, has two options: fight the elections solo or forge an alliance with Uddhav Thackeray, who is desperate to seek an additional share of votes to compensate for the loss the party split he might incur in his bid to retain the Mayor's office. Samajwadi Party, the Nationalist Congress Party and All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are the other contenders, but they are not as big as the Thackeray Sena and the Congress.

The BJP's concern is the Muslim benevolence, whatever the percentile, that goes to the Thackeray Sena. The Sena's calculations are that the Muslims will not vote as much for other parties, including the Congress, because they will not be in a position to install their mayor, but the Muslim share can stop the BJP from seizing power. Many Congress leaders endorsed the Sena's thought and sought to go with the Sena if their party were to survive in the BMC. The Congress has four MLAs in Mumbai, of which three are Muslims. One of its prospective Muslim candidates had lost by a whisker to the Sena.

"A party, in this case the Thackeray Sena, now being projected as a strong BJP opponent, has a better chance of winning over the Muslims, who want someone strong to defend them. The BJP is not their party and the Congress is not their number one choice everywhere," said a senior Congress leader. "Our top leaders may not know the ground reality, but a particular trend in the well-knit community indicates that the Thackeray Sena will be getting 30-35 per cent Muslim votes. SP and AIMIM are restricted to certain pockets," the leader said, explaining why a pact with Thackeray (and MVA) could help the Congress to keep itself afloat.

The support of an organisation of the Marathi Muslims (who have roots in Maharashtra) extended recently to Uddhav Thackeray began a new turf war between the Thackeray Sena and the BJP, which accused the former of resorting to Muslim appeasement and departing from Balasaheb Thackeray's politics. It further alleged that the Thackeray Sena used a term Marathi Muslim to mislead the Marathi people, leaving Marathi Gujaratis, Marathi North Indians and Marathi South Indians out of its electoral scheme. On Sunday, the BJP began ‘Jagar Mumbaicha Yatra' (Mumbai Awakening March) at a public venue near Thackeray's Kalanagar residence. CM Devendra Fadnavis will join the Mumbai BJP unit in the yatra that overlaps the Maharashtra leg of the Bharat Jodo Yatra undertaken by former Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

As far as the BMC polls are concerned, arch rivals Thackeray Sena and the BJP are clear in their approach. The unified Sena, which won two seats more than the BJP in 2017, is now split, but the Shinde group doesn't have much influence in Mumbai. The BJP has set a target of winning 115 seats. It has been working on both possibilities of having a 227 or 236-seat house. The BJP has kept Maharashtra Navnirman Sena in good humour. The two may not be seen in a pre-poll alliance, but are expected to be working to reduce Thackeray's gain. The other side has Thackeray, who has been setting up a jugad that can win him more and more Muslim votes. Now it is up to the Congress to assess the pros and cons of a pre- and post-poll alliance with Thackeray.

In 2017, the unified Shiv Sena had made a significant foray into several Muslim-dominated areas, winning two Muslim corporators (of five candidates fielded) and a sizeable vote share in others. The BJP fielded six Muslim candidates, but didn't win any. The Congress took a big hit in the Muslim-dominated wards and yet it had a maximum number of Muslim corporators in the house. The NCP won two. AIMIM bagged two on debut and SP won six.

Thackeray Sena has claimed that a sizeable number of Muslim voters have backed its winner Rutuja Latke in the Andheri Assembly bypoll that concluded on Sunday. A detailed analysis will help understand the voting pattern in Muslim dominated polling booths.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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