05 November,2023 08:25 AM IST | Mumbai | Ian Chappell
Australia players celebrate after taking the wicket of England’s Joe Root during their match in Ahmedabad on Saturday. PIC/PTI
As we reach the climax of the round robin stage the most likely semi-finals are India (1) v New Zealand (4), with South Africa (2) playing Australia (3). For two of the tournament favourites, India and Australia, this would be their favoured semi-final match-ups if that is the actual finishing order of the top four.
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Whilst there have been a number of upsets so far - England's utter collapse being monumental - there are no real surprises about the best way to win 50-over matches.
Taking early wickets and then maintaining momentum in the middle overs is a surefire way to restrict an opponent. If the best batsmen are back in the pavilion during the death overs then you are likely to be chasing a reasonable target. Having good, wicket-taking spinners is important.
What to do on winning the toss is critical. The captain doing so faces a challenging decision. One thing you don't want is to send the opposition in and then find yourself chasing a huge total. Having a decent score on the board is a positive result, especially when the match decides who progresses and who goes home.
For that top four finishing order to occur there are still a few crucial games. India - despite the concern of remaining undefeated in the round robin - did well to stay ahead of South Africa on points. Victory over the Proteas in their group match was still a must despite the home side humiliating Sri Lanka.
Australia are now almost assured of a third place finish (which could help them avoid India in the semis) as long as they keep winning. With the unexpected injury to Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Marsh's untimely absence, this could have been a difficult exercise except that their arch rivals England are playing like headless chooks.
The New Zealand versus Pakistan contest was a crucial encounter but the Kiwis do have a net run-rate cushion. Pakistan's cause is a tough one. First they have to win whilst overcoming a major run-rate disadvantage, which if they let it, could be a distraction. Pakistan need to exceed their last opponent by more than 200 runs and bowl the opposition out with plenty of overs to spare - a tall order.
Despite being easy-to-barrack-for and producing a clinical win over the Netherlands, Afghanistan have a tough job to sneak into the final four. Whilst mathematically they could finish ahead of New Zealand on points, they have two huge obstacles.
Firstly, they have a brutal finish with hard games against Australia and South Africa. That is a difficult enough task but they are also well behind New Zealand on net run-rate, which equates to Afghanistan having to both bat and bowl outrageously well in those two matches.
Nevertheless Afghanistan have won a lot of fans with their aggressive approach and continuing improvement in skill. It also doesn't hurt that their spinners maintain line and length under fire and seek wickets at every opportunity.
New Zealand find themselves in a slightly precarious position because they had a reasonably gentle early schedule considering the absolute disintegration of England. They've also suffered some serious injuries along the way but it is their fielding frailty - normally a strength - that should worry them most in the lead up to the final.
New Zealand need a return to their normal consistent World Cup ways for the remainder of the tournament.
South Africa stumbled badly against the Netherlands. Australia will hope they commit a play-off crime by producing another unexplainable mix-up to bow out of the World Cup with a poor semi-final performance.
Apart from England's palpable collapse and South Africa's surprising good form, the tournament has progressed as the super-powers, India and Australia would like. This is on-going headache for the ICC as long they don't resolve the current financial imbalance in world cricket.
