Maharashtra’s war of narratives: Caste Balances and Development

The "Ladki Bahin Yojana" has become a significant talking point in Maharashtra. Following their setback in the Lok Sabha elections, the MahaYuti government has strategically turned to the "women vote bank," drawing inspiration from initiatives in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha. Amid challenges such as the Maratha agitation, growing dissent within SC/ST communities, the Kunbi consolidation towards the MVA in Vidarbha, and the steadfast support of Muslims for the MVA, the MahaYuti coalition views the "Ladki Bahin Yojana" as a potential game-changer for the upcoming elections.

Chief Minister Shri Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena has launched Mission "Tai, Mai, Akka." At the same time, Deputy Chief Minister Shri Ajit Pawar has mirrored Ashok Gehlot's strategy by initiating his "Jan Samman Yatra." Wearing a pink jacket and travelling in a pink bus, Ajit Pawar is touring the state to galvanise women voters. Similarly, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis embraced the pink jacket during Rakshabandhan.

Three of the allies have realised that merely showcasing development during their tenure won't secure votes. The 'Ladki Bahin Yojana' will cut across all castes and communities, offering some relief to the MahaYuti. However, everything is not going well within the MVA either. Uddhav Thackeray is keen on becoming the Chief Minister and is pressuring the MVA to declare him as their CM candidate. The Congress, on the other hand, is hesitant to risk naming its chief, Nana Patole, who belongs to the OBC-Kunbi community, as the CM candidate. Sharad Pawar aims to be the kingmaker and understands that announcing Uddhav's candidacy would give the MahaYuti an advantage. Additionally, the fake narrative of 'BJP changing the constitution' and the false promise by Congress of distributing Rs 1 lakh to women are unlikely to work this time, leading to a shift in the voting patterns of the SC/ST community. Amid this political turmoil in the state, the biggest challenge for all alliances will be seat distribution. Leaders may jump to other political parties once the candidate lists are released. Therefore, there is a high likelihood of a hung assembly in the upcoming state elections, followed by post-election alliances, marking a new phase in Maharashtra's politics.

Politics of caste balances post Lok Sabha 2024 elections
The Maharashtra Lok Sabha poll results revealed a significant shift in voting patterns. Support for the NDA among Marathas increased from 52 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 56 per cent in 2019, but it declined to 46 per cent in the 2024 elections. The OBC community began voting for the BJP en masse after Shri Narendra Modi became Prime Minister, with the community's vote share rising from 60 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 75 per cent in 2019, but it plummeted to 50 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. A similar trend was observed among the ST community, where the voting percentage dropped from 44 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to just 35 per cent in 2024.

The decline in OBC consolidation came as a significant shock to the BJP, particularly in Vidarbha, which is considered a stronghold of the BJP and RSS. The Kunbis voted en masse for the MVA and may continue to do so in upcoming elections. Nana Patole, Sunil Kedar, Vikas Thakare, and Yashomati Thakur are among the heavyweight Kunbi leaders of the INC, while the BJP has a few strong Kunbi leaders in Vidarbha. The BJP's failure to provide political representation to the Kunbis during the Lok Sabha elections may be a reason for their lack of support. Additionally, the ST community's shift away from the party in Vidarbha and Uttar Maharashtra is surprising. According to various investigative reports, the opposition, particularly the Congress and CPI(M), collaborated with tribal NGOs in the Bhandara-Gondiya, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Nandurbar, and Palghar areas to create a narrative against the Modi government. These tribal NGOs presented various PPTs to the tribals in their villages, distributed pamphlets, and organised rallies to propagate the false narrative that the BJP would change the constitution. This narrative has been sustained until now and is expected to influence the upcoming elections as well.

The Maratha community remains the elephant in the room. Has the bubble of Manoj Jarange burst, and do the Marathas now regret voting for the MVA candidates? Recently, Maratha agitators have begun questioning the positions of Nana Patole and Sharad Pawar on Maratha reservations. Even the opposition remains silent on this issue, fearing the loss of the OBC vote bank. Meanwhile, Manoj Jarange might contest the elections by forming a new party, potentially reshaping the state's political landscape.

Another significant shift in the state's caste politics involves Dalit politics. The decline of VBA in Maharashtra mirrors the fall of BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Both parties were considered vote-splitters that ultimately benefitted the BJP, but in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Dalit voters consolidated behind the MVA. Just as the political discourse suggested the end of VBA, Prakash Ambedkar emerged with the "Samvidhaan Bachao Yatra" to regain the trust of the Dalit community. The MahaYuti faces challenges, especially after the Supreme Court's statement on SC-ST sub-classification led to a one-day Bharat Bandh. While the opposition may try to use this against the BJP, Prime Minister Modi has already taken precautions by stating that sub-classification will not occur at this time.

The war of narratives
Whether it's MahaYuti or MVA, every political party in Maharashtra faces significant criticism for various reasons. The BJP is accused of breaking up the Shiv Sena and NCP, with allegations that the party used central agencies to weaken regional parties for its benefit. Shiv Sena is labelled as "Gaddar" for allegedly disrespecting the legacy of the late Shri Balasaheb Thackeray Ji. On the other hand, Shiv Sena (UBT) is criticised for aligning with the anti-Hindutva Congress. Ajit Pawar's NCP is struggling to retain its cadre, many of whom still regard Sharad Pawar as their leader, while Sharad Pawar's faction of the NCP is criticised for promoting communism and nepotism within the party. Meanwhile, the Congress has a long history of corruption in the state and lacks a prominent leader as a CM candidate. Let's briefly analyse the ground narratives and their political impact.

Another significant shift in the state's politics is in Dalit politics. The decline of the VBA in Maharashtra mirrors the fall of the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Both parties were considered vote-cutters that ultimately benefitted the BJP, but in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Dalit voters consolidated their support for the MVA. Just as the political circles were discussing the end of the VBA, Prakash Ambedkar initiated the "Samvidhaan Bachao Yatra" to regain the trust of the Dalit community. The situation remains challenging for MahaYuti, as the Supreme Court's statement on SC-ST sub-classification led to a one-day Bharat Bandh. There's a strong possibility that the opposition might use this against the BJP, but PM Modi has already played it safe by stating that sub-classification will not occur at this time.

The Magic of Ladki Bahin Yojana vs. women's safety: The opposition in Maharashtra is quite astute, but as the old political saying goes, "Yeh Janta Hai, Sab Janti Hai" (The public knows everything). As soon as the popular scheme was launched, the opposition criticised it, claiming that it would be discontinued after the elections and would place a significant burden on the state's finances. Meanwhile, the same opposition leaders jumped on the bandwagon, setting up registration desks for the Ladki Bahin Scheme with their pictures and branding materials in their constituencies. This was particularly evident in minority-dominated assembly constituencies where Congress or NCP (SCP) is strong; workers conducted door-to-door campaigns to register women for the scheme. However, just as everyone was trying to capitalise on the scheme's popularity, the Badlapur incident shocked the entire state, immediately shifting the narrative on the ground. Questions were raised about the government's plan to ensure women's safety. Similar incidents from other parts of the state further tarnished MahaYuti's image to some extent. Consequently, the scheme alone may not be enough to help MahaYuti achieve the magic number in the upcoming elections. It will be interesting to see whether MahaYuti will promise anything related to women's protection in their manifesto.

Poster of NCP (SCP) MLA Rohit Pawar advertising Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana (left); poster of INC MP Pratibha Dhanorkar inviting women To register for Ladki Bahin Yojana (right). Photo Courtesy: Ritvik Mehta

The MahaYuti is anti-farmer V/s Mukhya Mantri Baliraja Vij Savlat Yojana: It is commonly said that cotton in Vidarbha, soybean in Marathwada, and onion in northern Maharashtra changed the entire political landscape of the state during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The discontent among the cotton, soybean, and onion farmers led to heavyweight leaders like Dr Bharati Pawar, Subhash Bhamre, and Sujay Vikhe Patil losing their elections. Despite the MahaYuti government increasing the PM Krishi Samman Nidhi from Rs 6,000 to Rs 12,000, the farmers voted against the Yuti in the elections. To counter this, the government announced the provision of free electricity of up to 7.5 horsepower capacity for agricultural pumps, earmarking a subsidy of Rs 14,761 crore. It also decided to disburse Rs 4,194 crore directly to the bank accounts of cotton and soybean farmers as financial aid for crop damage in 2023. The opposition, as usual, called these measures election sops and demanded a complete farm loan waiver. The history of the farm loan waiver promise by the opposition is quite interesting, as hardly any Congress-ruled states have implemented it properly. I recall that on March 8, 2008, Shri Sharad Pawar, then Union Minister, stated that a farm loan waiver is only a one-time policy and cannot become a regular practice; otherwise, the banks and the government will go bankrupt. According to the CSDS survey, the vote share of the opposition among Marathi farmers increased from 29 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 39 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The increasing investments V/s Marathi-Gujarati divide: For the past two years, the MVA, particularly the SS (UBT), has been accusing the BJP of diverting business investments from Maharashtra to Gujarat. The opposition alleged that Maharashtra lost significant investments, including the Vedanta-Foxconn project, the Tata-Airbus Aircraft project, and the bulk drug park, under the Shinde government. To address these allegations, Maharashtra's Industries Minister, Shri Uday Samant, presented a white paper in the state assembly on August 3, 2023. The report clarified that these companies were only exploring opportunities in the state and had not committed to any investments, as evidenced by the lack of on-ground developments. The report also highlighted that in most cases, the projects did not progress due to the previous state government's inaction. According to a recent RBI report, Maharashtra has now become the leading state in attracting FDI. In 2020, Karnataka held the top position, followed by Gujarat in 2021, and now Maharashtra ranks first. It's also worth noting that Maharashtra was the leading state in attracting FDI from 2015 to 2019.

The expected verdict and the strategy
The absence of the RSS and Vichar Parivar was evident during the Lok Sabha polls, and now, regular meetings between the BJP and RSS have commenced. It is reported that RSS workers will guide the party on key political issues in the upcoming elections. The BJP has begun the correction process by conducting a booth-wise analysis of the results. It was reported that thousands of BJP voters' names were deleted from the electoral list, and now the party workers are going door-to-door to re-register those voters. The game is not over yet, as many political pundits suggest, because this election will be highly hyper-local. Seat sharing and candidate selection will matter the most. In the absence of any wave or prominent narrative across the state, the election will be fought on constituency-wise issues. Interestingly, post-Maharashtra elections, regional politics will likely reshape accordingly. Will the NCP (Ajit Pawar) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) reunite? Will the BJP emerge as the single-largest party despite facing so many challenges? Will Eknath Shinde continue as the CM of Maharashtra? We will get the answers to these questions after Diwali.

Ritwik Mehta is a political strategist and the founder of Niti Tantra

The views expressed here are the individual's and don't represent those of the paper.