Lok Sabha elections 2024: Maharashtra promises to be deciding factor

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. File pic/Atul Kamble

The realisation in rival political camps is that the way to Lok Sabha goes through Maharashtra. The NDA's ambition to surpass the 400-seat mark depends on the state that elects 48 seats. The state politically separates the Modi-loving cow belt from the southern states that haven't accepted the Bharatiya Janata Party like their northern counterparts. Here in Maharashtra, even if the Bharatiya Janata Party retains its 2019 tally, there is no guarantee that its alliance partners would also retain the numbers their respective undivided parties had won five years ago. Hence, I.N.D.I.A bloc's hopes rely more on the weaklings in the NDA rather than the BJP. But the BJP has a counter to this. It is fully prepared not only in the seats it already has, but also in many others it wants the allies to part with. It is to be seen whether the allies convince the BJP to save them embarrassment and jibes from the rival factions that will be contesting a much higher number of seats.

In NDA, the BJP works like a well-programmed election machine. The same can't be said about the allies in Maharashtra. Neither Eknath Shinde (chief of the EC-recognised Shiv Sena) nor Ajit Pawar (chief of the EC-recognised NCP) have the experience of leading elections of this size independently. They didn't even have the opportunity to lead the local self-government elections that helped understand public opinion. It happened because, like local body polls, the by-polls to two Lok Sabha segments were not held. So, there has been no instrument available to fathom the depth of NDA and MVA's influence in the changed political scenario of the state. For Shinde and Ajit, the Lok Sabha polls will be their first captaincy whereas their rival factions have senior leaders, some of them having 55 years of political experience. Even if they get to skipper their respective boats, the BJP will be dictating the course. Deliberate disobedience on the part of the allies will not be forgotten and forgiven by the big brother. No matter what, the BJP will not allow the allies a free run in the contest that will seat or unseat Narendra Modi from the PM's throne. The BJP believes it should contest more seats than ever because it can win them. Will Shinde and Ajit concede to the overpowering BJP? Their recent posturing suggested their disagreement. Whether BJP gives up its claim to more seats or not, a lot will depend on how many contests are set up straight between the respective Sena and NCP factions.

People in the know told us that the party factions in both were being pushed to the corner by the national parties that thought they were stronger than the allies. In NDA, a seat like Baramati proved to be an exception because the BJP has never won it. It will be a Pawar versus Pawar contest there. The same cannot be said about Thane and Kalyan, Shinde's strongholds of which the BJP wants one or both. The BJP also wants Shinde Sena to vacate Aurangabad. However, in the rival camp, Uddhav Thackeray's Sena is learnt to have successfully tamed the bullying by the Congress. Eventually, the national party is likely to end up getting less than the Sena faction. Congress' poorest-ever performance in successive elections (two seats in 2014, one in 2019) against the undivided Sena's 18 seats did not give it much negotiating power. Insiders say that NCP's Sharad Pawar has been reasonable in his demands, but he ensured that the Congress wasn't given an upper hand.

The BJP has announced 20 candidates. The Shinde Sena and NCP-Ajit haven't made an announcement. The I.N.D.I.A bloc is in no hurry though it said the seat-sharing talks were already over. Differences, if any, would have been ironed out during Rahul Gandhi's visit which also saw the Congress's entire leadership in attendance. Issues impacting the behaviour of pre-poll pacts and subsequent outcomes in terms of the number of seats gained and lost will crop up only when the electioneering progresses amid unsolved differences over seat-sharing. In NDA, the BJP holds the whip against the erring allies. On BJP's rival side, a bigger and prospective player like Mamata Banerjee has left the opposition bloc. At least in Maharashtra, state-specific union has stayed so far. Any guarantee that the unity I.N.D.I.A bloc has shown at the Congress-organised Shivaji Park rally will be intact in the next two months?

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore

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