Maharashtra politics: Ajit Pawar's regret and rapprochement, a googly or wide ball?

Ajit Pawar gave his rebellion a strategic and human face on the eve of the monsoon session of the state legislature by landing unannounced at the YB Chavan Centre to meet his uncle Sharad Pawar. He along with his ministers and senior leaders regretted their rebellion and requested Pawar senior to find a way to keep the party intact. Ajit's associate rebel Praful Patel spilled the beans later. "We all took our deity and our leader Sharad Pawar saheb's blessings. We respect him, but we also want the NCP to be united to work strongly in the future. We have requested Pawar saheb to make an effort in this regard and guide us," he said. Many wondered whether the visit was planned at the eleventh hour to blunt the accusations of betrayal and attacks that are expected in the legislative session. NCP (Pawar) insiders said the uprisers' cordiality was stunning in the wake of the harsh language they had been using against 'the parent party' since July 2. Another view was that such meetings were bound to create doubts, especially when Ajit had said earlier that the previous attempts to join the BJP were his uncle's handiwork. Also, the technicalities the rebel splinter group will be facing in the Assembly, Election Commission and the Supreme Court, could also be the other aspect leading to the offer of unity.

Patel said Pawar listened to the plea patiently, but didn't respond then and there. Pawar's aide Jayant Patil endorsed Patel. However, the uncle's strategy, which was being planned after meeting Ajit and his ilk, will be known when the monsoon session begins Monday morning. The session, which will see the bench strengths tilted heavily in favour of the rulers, is expected to be stormy because of the undecided disputes over the official status of the legislative party. The issues of public welfare may not get as much attention, at least initially. Speaker Rahul Narvekar will certainly face questions over the NCP (Ajit) even as a similar matter about the Shinde Sena is still pending before him. Neither Ajit nor Sharad Pawar has given the respective numbers of MLAs supporting them.

The battle within NCP is unlike the Shiv Sena's. It's between two people from one family. Sharad Pawar had handed the party's reins to his daughter Supriya, catalysing the process of Ajit's grand entry into the BJP-Sena splinter alliance that was stitched last year to teach Uddhav Thackeray a lesson. Ajit's induction was seen as BJP's sweet revenge over Sharad Pawar, who was 'instrumental' in bringing the first Devendra Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar government down, and then installing Thackeray as MVA's CM. There is more to the alliance with the NCP.

Ajit joining the force is expected to give the BJP a boost in the Lok Sabha elections, but that is not the national party's only purpose. The BJP has a long-term intention to go with the NCP, the Maratha-dominated party it has been seeing as a prospective ally. The alliance can help the BJP ride smoothly in Maharashtra in the future, with or without the Shide Sena. The BJP needs more leaders and votes from the NCP's strong base of politically influential Marathas who now stand divided between the uncle and Ajit, the new DyCM, who has managed to get a very plum 'mass appeal' portfolios for himself and his ministerial colleagues, exactly the way Pawar senior had successfully bargained with the Congress, and later in the MVA.

More about the love the BJP and Sharad Pawar shared for long. The NCP founder's first rebellion against the Congress during the Janata Party rule was supported by the BJP's mother party. Pawar continued to enjoy warm relations with the BJP stalwarts. Many years later, he declared outside support to the Fadnavis government in 2014 when the united Sena sat in the opposition, but came back into the power equation within a month, fearing that Pawar's party might join Fadnavis. The recent accounts of Ajit, Fadnavis and senior Pawar substantially proved that the two parties were in talks to form an alliance on multiple occasions. The NCP pulled out once after the swearing-in ceremony, and delayed the pact on other occasions.

A fortnight ago, power politics in the Pawar family gave Ajit the final push. On Sunday, the new DyCM tried to use the leverage the blood relation had granted him, but the uncle ensured that non-Pawar leaders from his faction were also present during the one-way talks. Clearly, he didn't want to be unilateral and breach the trust of the people who still believe in his leadership and despise Ajit for the betrayal. Later in the day, Sharad Pawar told the party's youth wing that he was not interested in going with the BJP, and that the young people should take his progressive thought forward.

Some said the appeal-cum-offer for keeping the NCP intact stemmed from the fact that the Supreme Court directives in the Sena-related cases have made things difficult for the ruling parties. Since technicalities involving the Sena and NCP splits are identical, the Ajit faction tested rapprochement before taking the course the Shinde Sena had taken. Public sympathy Sharad Pawar may receive from the masses and the fear of losing out to his mass appeal could also be one of the reasons. Shinde had blamed and attacked Thackeray for breaking away. He continues to attack the former CM even after a year. But Ajit has been cautious about using words against the uncle, although he had suggested it was time the octogenarian retired from politics. His colleagues have been responding to accusations in the same vein. What separates Ajit from Shinde is that the latter took more time to understand the disadvantages. In turn, the CM handed advantages to Ajit Pawar, who waited for long in the wings before entering the stage where two main characters had been performing under the direction of top bosses. Ajit has got a great deal in portfolio allocation in exchange for sharing his strength, considered much better than Shinde's, in the time of crisis. Now it's up to Ajit to deliver for the big brother. But his yield will depend on Sharad Pawar's manoeuvrings.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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