Lok Sabha elections 2024: Disagreement over seat allocation within the Maha Vikas Aghadi!

NCP leader Sharad Pawar, former CM Uddhav Thackeray and Congress’ Bhai Jagtap and Nana Patole. Pic/PTI

The Lok Sabha elections will be declared at any moment and Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi are emulating each other in an attempt to outsmart each other. Mahayuti is certain that it will win more than 45 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats, having just concluded its pivotal meeting to deliberate on seat sharing within their alliance, taking a step at a time in that direction. It will also shortly release its final list of candidates, guided by ‘Maha Chanakya' Amit Shah and expertly orchestrated by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and both of his deputies, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. It is also important to understand that anything sown in the media has to be disregarded.

Media's viewpoint may differ, but seat-sharing discussions within the Mahayuti are proceeding smoothly. But there are discrepancies with the Maha Vikas Aghadi. From proclamations made by leftover Sena spokesperson to the Congress's denial of requests to Sharad Pawar's aspirations… And just when one thinks that everything that has happened was inevitable, along comes the bouncers from Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi's Prakash Ambedkar. In this seat-sharing debate within the Maha Vikas Aghadi, there is so much misunderstanding that nobody understands what to anticipate or what is going to happen with this alliance.

Background of the last election

Everyone will agree that after the last Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti's power has multiplied. At that time, Congress could win only one seat while the NCP could win four. And because the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena were in coalition and there was a Narendra Modi wave, this alliance gained 43 seats, with the Shiv Sena holding 18 of those seats. Later, after the Shiv Sena split vertically, 13 of its MPs followed Eknath Shinde's leadership and joined hands with the BJP to establish an alliance. No matter how much Uddhav Thackeray argues that Hinduhridaysamrat Balasaheb Thackeray was the sole reason for the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in 2019, the voter is aware that the Shiv Sena's victory in that election was solely due to the strength of BJP and the able leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Also Read: Can BJP achieve its 370-plus seats target in 2024 Lok Sabha polls?

Now, things have changed significantly in the past five years. Significant factions within the Shiv Sena and the NCP broke away and joined the Mahayuti with the BJP. Consequently, the vast majority of local activists and MPs are endorsing Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde. Hence, the Mahayuti has decided to contest with its complete might to win 45 out of 48 seats and emerge as a formidable force in the upcoming elections. Conversely, the coalition of the weaker Congress, the Leftover Sena and the Leftover NCP has already come to an end. No matter how much they would like to brag, nobody is willing to embrace Maha Vikas Aghadi's candidacy. Each of the three have realised that approving their candidacy is equivalent to endorsing failure.

There is a struggle within the Maha Vikas Aghadi. The statements made by the Congress state president Nana Patole, Vijay Wadettiwar, and Balasaheb Thorat sound absurd. NCP led by Sharad Pawar is, as always, putting its faith and hopes in the promise that ‘our senior leader Sharad Pawar will do some magic'. Voters have by now realised that neither Uddhav Thackeray nor his associate Sanjay Raut are anything more than gasbags; neither of their remarks are passionate or meaningful. All they can hope for is that the excellent works of the late Balasaheb Thackeray will continue to benefit them. In the midst of all of this, anxiety has grown with the announcement of the candidacies of Supriya Sule from Baramati and Amol Kirtikar of the UBT group. This merely serves to highlight the lack of unity among the three parties in this Maha Aghadi. The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi is periodically besieging them, which just serves to further compound the problem. This is making the ‘Maha Vikas Aghadi' a sinking ship.

Discipline and Chaos

A salient observation is that the Mahayuti solely discusses the developmental initiatives carried out, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi has nothing to say and hence resorts to using foul language, taunting and making vile remarks. It lacks foresightedness. Therefore, Everyone has admitted this even before the election was announced that the wind of victory of the Mahayuti in Maharashtra will now start blowing all around. The excitement and discipline of the meetings in the Mahayuti are quite noticeable while on the other hand, the disorganisation in the Maha Aghadi is not hidden.

There is complete turmoil within the Aghadi because Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar make certain decisions, and the Congress leaders in Maharashtra have no say because they don't have connections to their seniors in Delhi. There is no misunderstanding on seat allocation because the Mahayuti is solely focused on the candidate's victory in the polls, as both the NCP and the Shiv Sena have also agreed upon. The divide within the Maha Aghadi is widening every day. I am confident that half of the victory of the Mahayuti will be realised in the smooth distribution of seats! Elections aren't too far, so let's see!

'Keshav Upadhye is the chief spokesperson for BJP Maharashtra.'

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are those of the individual and don't represent those of the paper.