Khichdi yet again on Maharashtra’s plate

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Split like never before, loyalties and voters will decide the fate of the political parties in Maharashtra, of which there are at least six, if the Shiv Sena and NCP splinters are taken into account. There will be more in the fray, such as MNS, Samajwadi Party, BSP, BRS, AIMIM and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (if it stays away from any alliance) that have been impacting the gains of major parties. The poll field is expected to be a khichdi the state hasn't seen so far, notwithstanding the two rivals' alliances, the six parties are expected to be formed, and extend the pact to smaller parties that are willing to consolidate the bonds.

How it works

The Lok Sabha will be a little less complex because of the constituency size, but the Vidhan Sabha fray of much smaller segments could stretch the imagination to no end, because the social factors the respective parties depend on to score more in terms of votes, will get smaller or bigger in influence in that particular segment. The social factors here mean the specific castes, caste groups (as defined by social reservations) and minorities. There have been pockets where a particular party or a couple of parties have been getting more support than their nearest rivals due to the caste support. The selection of candidates is largely done on the basis of the dominant caste and caste groups. There have been exceptions, but not many. In many cases, the candidates from the same caste have been contesting with the purpose of splitting votes. One who gets the surplus from the other caste emerged as the winner. In some cases, the dominant castes have favoured those who they thought were the best among the equals. In some constituencies, smaller caste groups have been a decisive factor. VBA had made an exception to this established formula in the last elections. It did damage in some places, but couldn't snatch the win from the clutches of the major parties that fought independently or in alliance.

Who's leader?

Apart from social factors, what will stand out in the changed scenario is the loyalty quotient. Two regional parties that were part of the government have been split. The traditional Shiv Sena voters will have to choose between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. Same goes with the NCP that will have Sharad Pawar and nephew Ajit pitted against each other. Sena's previous split - Raj Thackeray's formation of a separate party - did not impact Uddhav much in terms of electoral gains. The Sena founder's son even became CM. Sharad Pawar has shown a robust immunity to the adversities that he had created himself or were inflicted upon him. As a party that broke away from the Congress, the united NCP kept dominating certain pockets. It slumped in 2014, just like the Congress, and came up five years later in 2019, to be a decisive partner in the MVA formation that didn't last longer because of the Sena split. The BJP broke the NCP citadel taking away a prized catch Ajit Pawar nearly a year ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Ajit has been pursuing his uncle to switch over, but that hasn't happened yet. Nobody knows their endgame. However, if the present situation continues till the forthcoming elections, it will be a toss between Uddhav and Shinde, and, Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar. The BJP, a party that thinks long term, will be able to assess the respective strength of the two partners who are expected to contribute to the national party's third consecutive claim to the New Delhi throne, and another attempt to be in power in Maharashtra. Winning maximum seats in Maharashtra in the Parliamentary contest has never been so important for the BJP, because the observers said that it is here a decider will be fought in 2024 and even after it.

BJP at work

The Opposition bloc has promised that it will convert the game into a win that had kept them miles away in 2019. The confidence, they said, stemmed from the resentment they have been seeing against the BJP's nine-year rule. The Congress is sure of winning again the three Hindi-speaking states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, that had favoured Narendra Modi six months after determining the winner in their respective states. The Congress said it won't recur and the results for both elections will go against the BJP not only in these three but other poll-bound states as well.

Going by its preparedness and recent moves, the BJP doesn't seem to be taking things lightly. It never does. The announcement of schemes for smaller OBC castes that, if they voted for the BJP for thinking about their welfare, is indication that the party is targeting the shares, albeit minuscule, but bigger when accumulated. This may help BJP while the larger OBC groups stand for a particular party or the leader. The connect the BJP-ruled states have been establishing with all possible social groups, converting them into labharthis is also aimed at consolidation. Regional parties in power are doing the same. Remember pan-India publicity campaigns of Telangana, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh governments? They impact other states politically because the local population may yearn for similar things, sop and dole that other states have given or promised. That puts the governments in power under pressure. Maharashtra is not an exception.

The tripartite government, the second such in a row, has been fighting demons within, but somehow has accelerated its outreach. Simultaneously, the governing partners are working to expand their individual influence to win as many seats. We don't know yet how many seats the Shinde and Ajit factions will get in the Lok Sabha contest, but they will be wanting more in the Assembly where it matters most. Neither Shinde Sena not Ajit's NCP has shown interest in Parliamentary politics, but their contribution in the BJP win and defeat will be taken into account for further arrangements with the BJP.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore

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