Games galore before next year’s decider

Election fever will begin soon with the declaration of the February schedule for north-eastern states. Representation pic

Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had snatched three states away from the clutches of the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Congress was euphoric because it had kept the BJP on tenterhooks in Gujarat, and followed it with wins in the Hindi belt's three important states. However, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh were taken back soon through turncoats, but Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh remained in Congress's hands. Rajasthan experienced political turbulence, throwing a challenge to the century-old national party to keep its hold tight to be in power till this year's winter elections.

The election fever will begin soon with declaration of the February schedule for north-eastern states of Tripura (BJP), Meghalaya (NDA) and Nagaland (NDA). The Karnataka (BJP) polls will be held in May, followed by Chhattisgarh (Congress), MP (BJP) and Mizoram (Mizo National) in November, and Rajasthan (Congress) and Telangana (TRS) in December.

The BJP goes to the 2023 electioneering with a stunning show in Gujarat which was preceded by the toppling of the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra, where it has total control to prepare for the next year's general and Assembly elections. The Congress has in its kitty Himachal Pradesh victory which has substantiated its argument that the Narendra Modi charisma couldn't work in other states as it did in Gujarat - the PM's home state. This year's elections will give the BJP an opportunity to prove the Congress premise wrong. Its thrust will be on making the voters understand why a double-engine sarkar was needed. Factional feuds in certain states are expected to cause the BJP some trouble.

Also Read: Gujarat election results: Flipping Kutch and Saurashtra helped BJP to record win

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are the states where the BJP and the Congress have been traditional rivals. Gujarat was a two-party state as well, until the Aam Aadmi Party made its presence felt in 2022. The AAP earned a national party status by winning a certain percentage of votes and five seats, pushing the Congress to the brink. AAP's performance in the states going to polls this year will be keenly watched.

In Tripura, the BJP had changed the leftist government after 25 years in 2018, but later faced rebellion. Some MLAs quit to join the Congress. The CM was changed, and the party also won more seats than its rivals in by-elections. The Opposition's united stand needs to be seen for its effectiveness. In Karnataka, the Janata Dal-Congress government was toppled. In its first attempt, the BJP couldn't prove a majority on the floor, but succeeded in the second shot. Like Tripura and Gujarat, the BJP changed its CM in Karnataka as well. The BJP that had emerged as the single largest party in 2018 will make another try to retain the position against the Congress and JD's never-say-die politricks.

Telangana, the BJP's another entry point (in addition to Andhra Pradesh) to south Indian politics, continues to be a stronghold of K Chandrashekar Rao, who will have another player in YSR Telangana Party in the race. YSR Telangana is led by YS Sharmila, the daughter of the former CM of AP, Rajasekhar Reddy (YSR). Her brother YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is the CM of AP. The YSR family has weakened the parent Congress party, particularly in AP, and it is expected to eat into the national party's share in Telangana as well.

The election spread will be wider - the northeast, parts of northwest, south and central India included. The performance of the national and regional parties will be considered an indicator to the Lok Sabha polls, particularly in view of senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's call for the Opposition's unity. As far as the BJP goes, it has thrived on the Lok Sabha numbers the cow belt has given. Four years ago, it doubled the LS strength from the northeast. In addition, Maharashtra contributed significantly to take the party beyond the 300-mark.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com