25 May,2023 09:09 AM IST | Mumbai | Ian Chappell
India’s Shubman Gill plays a leg-side shot during the first Test against Bangladesh at Chittagong on December 14, 2022. Pic/AFP
As it should be, this is a hard match to predict. That's mainly because of injury concerns and neither team playing a Test since completing a hard fought series earlier this year. To make matters even more difficult many of the players involved have only competed in IPL cricket in the lead up to the one-off Test.
While this may not seem to be the ideal preparation, it's worth recalling the opinion of former England batsman Ravi Bopara. In 2009, Bopara went straight from the fledgling IPL into a Test series against the West Indies and reckoned he was ideally prepared because T20 cricket got his feet moving and put him in a positive frame of mind.
Therefore, expect the players, especially the batsmen, to be ready for the Test. It's up to the bowlers to specifically prepare for the longer spells required in the five-day format.
If Australia have their classy pace trio of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood available, that makes them slight favourites. They are good bowlers at any time, but England in early June should be right up their alley. Nevertheless, an Indian pace attack consisting of Mohammed Shami, Mohammed Siraj and Umesh Yadav is also strong and only just behind the Australian trio in wicket-taking capability.
Mental strength will play a huge part in this Test. The team that displays the most resilience is likely to win as long as the contest is not unduly affected by bad weather. Being able to maintain a decent line and length when under attack is now mandatory in the tougher series and a fully fit Australian attack should benefit if the opposition are overzealous.
Therefore, much will depend on how the batsmen treat the talented opposing pace attacks. Australia rely heavily on Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne and Usman Khawaja's big scoring ability, but the enigmatic David Warner shouldn't be overlooked.
Despite his struggles in England, Warner is a dangerous player because he can score quickly. If he gets a start, India need to be wary of the danger Warner presents.
On the Indian side, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma and Cheteshwar Pujara are a handful because they've enjoyed success in Test cricket. Their job will be tough against a strong Australian attack but the bowlers also need to pay careful attention to Shubman Gill.
He tends to play with no fear and Gill has a stroke-making mentality which will not change even on this momentous occasion. If he's allowed the freedom to score quickly and hit boundaries, then Gill will be a headache for Australia.
One selection dilemma for India will be Ajinkya Rahane. Judging by the current squad, Rahane is likely to play which means he'll be largely relying on past form against Australia. If he plays, Rahane will help in slips to the spinners as he is easily India's best catcher in that position.
India have an advantage in spin bowling because of Ravindra Jadeja's ability to bat in the top six, which allows them the luxury of including the efficient R Ashwin. While Nathan Lyon is a good bowler, he'll be Australia's sole spinner.
The injuries to Jasprit Bumrah and Rishabh Pant badly affect India as they would be outright favourites with these two playing. The somewhat surprising unavailability of all-rounder Hardik Pandya also harms India as he would provide them with the final piece of the jigsaw puzzle.
With the match being played in English conditions, this slightly favours the strong Australian pace attack. However, as Bopara showed, you should never underestimate the value of an IPL preparation for batsmen.
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