Raj ki baat

Raj Thackeray has to his credit a record of sorts - he has campaigned for different parties in the past four Lok Sabha elections. Before breaking away from Matoshree, he canvassed for Shiv Sena. Then he sought votes for his own Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and mesmerised voters who stood by him. They didn't give him a single MP in 2009, but ensured the fall of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Sena in Mumbai and many other places of influence. The same year, Raj got 13 MLAs elected, and emerged a force to reckon with. Five years later, he came under Narendra Modi's spell and sought to make the then Gujarat Chief Minister the PM. And now, Raj is asking for Modi's removal.

Raj's public rallies across the state have been attractive. The opposition, that lacked teeth while attacking the BJP-Sena, is happier. The BJP is leaving no page of social media unturned to counter 'Raj ki baat.' Raj, the leader, who once praised Modi as a harbinger of hope and a tool to transform the country beyond one's imagination, has gone the way of some partners of BJP who left the NDA before completing the term. The common ground that prompted them to quit was the indifference of Modi and Amit Shah. United with like-minded parties and coalitions, the NDA dropouts are contesting against BJP with all their power packed together. Some frenemies like Sena, who were more abusive of Modi and BJP president Shah than any other estranged NDA ally, have stayed back in the pact.

Voters in a dilemma
The Thackeray cousins' politics should confuse the voters, who are said to have preferred the Sena when MNS isn't in the contest and vice versa. We have seen this in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik and the places. Would Raj's hard-hitting speeches give Congress-NCP the much-required winning share through secret ballot? Or, will his followers go for Sena because their leader doesn't attack his cousin in his powerpoint presentations? Raj simply tells the audience to vote for the parties other than Modi-Shah's.

The BJP insists that Raj is acting at the behest of NCP Chief Sharad Pawar. The NCP boss wanted MNS to be part of the mahagathbandhan in Maharashtra, but the Congress had reservations over inducting Raj as a partner. But once the Raj juggernaut rolled out to a thumping response, state Congress president Ashok Chavan did not object when the MNS chief held a rally in Nanded, where he is the sitting MP. Raj achieved multiple goals in going to Nanded. Firstly, he showed Chavan he could attract an audience of the strength that matched Congress President Rahul Gandhi's and Modi's events. Secondly, he raised a moot question as to why Chavan, who his party claims to be a sure-shot winner, could need his support. Thirdly, Raj would be free to claim credit if Chavan's winning margin increases. The impact of Raj, if seen on the state's outcome as is assumed now by his supporters, should also make him a hard bargainer ahead of the Assembly polls to be held in October this year.

Mumbai matters
Mumbai matters the most in Raj's politics. The war over holding his rally here is expected to escalate because the poll authority had initially denied MNS permission saying no MNS candidate is contesting. Why did authorities in other places allow Raj to hold rallies? The results of 2009 are the history that Raj would like to repeat, but not in terms of cutting votes by going solo. We may see him forging alliances, preferably with the Congress and NCP - if not both, then, at least with NCP which is likely to benefit most from MNS in Mumbai North-East Lok Sabha constituency. The MNS is seamlessly working for the Congress in the segments except for Mumbai North-West where Raj's sworn enemy, Sanjay Nirupam, is a Congress candidate.

The booth-wise polling in all six constituencies of Mumbai should explain to us the voting pattern and the shift caused by MNS in favour of UPA. The uncertainty of poaching votes looms large considering the grip that MNS has lost in the assembly and civic polls. The party has no MLA and its number in the BMC has reduced. The 37% prime votebank of Marathi-speaking people in the megalopolis is not controlled by any single party. Even Shiv Sena has been wooing non-Marathi communities of late. Congress spokesperson Priyanka Chaturvedi's induction in the Sena fold, party president Uddhav Thackeray's Ayodhya tour and his pro-active approach towards communities that the Sena despised, shows the paradigm shift in the Maharashtrian-centric outfit. Raj has learnt a lesson from his cousin. A couple of months ago, he went all out to address a north Indian gathering in Hindi.

Raj gained a lot in his maiden attempt, but failed to increase the advantage that even his uncle late Bal Thackeray hadn't been able to achieve in his initial days. The late Sena founder could take his party in the BMC and legislature only by having an understanding with the then major parties. The Sena took off for a longer flight using the airstrip that other principal parties had built for it. Let's see if the uncle's flying pattern steadies Raj's turbulent vessel or if it nosedives yet again.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com

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