It's enough to make a man sick

Three names that are currently making the rounds: former president Pranab Mukherjee, the always-a-bridesmaid Sharad Pawar, and even former prime minister HD Deve Gowda (though everyone admitted that he was the long shot of the three)

Dengue fever took me out of the world recently for about ten days. It is a debilitating and depressing disease that can be threatening. My blood platelet count dropped to 59,000 (normal range: 1.5 to 4 lakh) which meant five days at a clinic under an IV drip.

The nurse asked how I got dengue, and I wasn't sure, because it hit me just before I boarded a flight from Bangalore, where I had gone for two book functions. The flight was an ordeal, and when I reached home, my son told me I was 104.1 F. The aedes mosquito must have attacked me before I left Gurugram for Bangalore - possibly hatched at the construction site next door. Such is the price of progress.

I gradually returned to the world this weekend; while ill, I could not even speak coherently. Now typing seems like an art to be mastered again. What makes it easier to return, and more depressing, is that the news appears to be much the same. The same incompetent running of our economy, the same doublespeak and lies by the government, and the same nastiness from the government's cheerleaders towards all those who dissent or disagree. What has changed, however, is that the number of people disgruntled with their prime minister has increased.

I usually avoid talking politics with my relatives because they are upper caste Biharis who are as fascist as any group in India: they act as if they are the only ones who have lived life through merit (none of my relatives, I may point out, has had to do manual labour alongside studying for their civil services exams, so merit is really a moot point though no upper caste fellow will ever admit it); they have utter disdain for anything that questions the patriarchy; they have a most unrepublican, utter contempt for those lower in the caste hierarchy. Ironically, however, I find that my relatives are not as bad as my upper caste in-laws from Assam, who in the name of identity and pride have given us a disease called the National Register of Citizens, which will unfold in the most nasty manner in the years to come.

What I found surprising is that several of my relatives, about whom I got a chance to hear while I was recuperating, were disillusioned with Prime Minister Narendra Modi - and the main reason was economic uncertainty. Two of my cousins, both of whom are deputy general managers in completely different fields, felt great apprehension about the economic future. One of them was disgruntled because his wife's business was demolished by the 2016 demonetisation; the other was worried about his son's job prospects in the years to come. If such previously hard-core votaries of 'good governance' could sour so badly on the prime minister during the election year, then he has lots to worry about.

Of course, Modi retains his hard-core support - I see people on social media say things like who cares about the economy, so long as Modi stops the "Islamic invasion" of India. This is bizarre. Where is this invasion - and I should know, having spent my journalistic career studying such things. Forget about the invasion, one would have to think that jihadism or extremism has receded rapidly over the past few years, and that the protections erected by governments - often at the cost of individual civil liberties - have done the job. Yet it is convenient, I suppose, for a bunch of cranks to keep barking about non-existent threats to give themselves meaning and purpose in a life otherwise marked by banality and mediocrity.

What does this mean for Modi's electoral prospects in 2019? While I was in Bangalore, various people seemed to think that he would possibly lose up to half his Lok Sabha seats in the next election. This led to the Indian middle class's favourite parlour game - what would happen if Modi came down to 150 seats. Somebody said that the next government would be a coalition government headed by one of three names that were currently doing the rounds: former president Pranab Mukherjee, the always-a-bridesmaid Sharad Pawar, and even former prime minister HD Deve Gowda (though everyone admitted that he was the long shot of the three).

Ordinarily, I would have shuddered at these names, particularly the former president, who is a weasel of Indian politics and is responsible for crony capitalism and Assam's mess. However, what is more scary is that a coalition government might take charge but is so weighed down by its own contradictions that it collapses in two or three years - which might lead to Modi's return to power in the way that his role model, Mrs Indira Gandhi did in 1980. Even dengue is preferable to that.

Aditya Sinha's latest book, The Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace, co-written with AS Dulat and Asad Durrani, is available now. He tweets @autumnshade Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com

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