16 July,2018 08:14 AM IST | Mumbai | Aditya Sinha
BJP President Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pic/AFP
Summoning a list of projects whose foundation stones are to be laid or that are to be inaugurated by December 31. A team headed by a former journalist currently in Puri, Odisha, mapping it out as an alternative parliamentary constituency for Modi to contest. BJP President Amit Shah, also in a daily rally mode, visiting and assuaging coalition allies - as he did between rallies in Bihar and Jharkhand recently, when he breakfasted with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. It looks like an early parliamentary election.
Speculation over the election's timing, otherwise due by May 2019, has ebbed and flowed ever since the Gujarat assembly polls last December scared the bejesus out of the BJP.
There was talk of a November-December 2018 parliamentary election, along with assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Mizoram, for a variety of reasons: Modi and Shah expect the BJP to lose both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and do not want to go into the parliamentary election on the back of major losses.
No one wants an election at the height of summer; the nation's economic forecasts are at best uncertain, so it is better to fight sooner rather than later; and it makes sense given the opposition parties difficult and time-consuming effort to form a united front against Modi.
Between then and the Karnataka assembly election, it looked as if Modi and Shah had decided to let the government last as long as the Parliament's term allowed. Nobody has forgotten the lesson of 2004, when then PM, AB Vajpayee, was persuaded to call elections a few months early and then saw his NDA allies lose so many seats that he lost power. There has also been the argument that by the time the 2019 election happens, the clumsy roll-out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) would have smoothened out, and possibly yielded good electoral dividends. Additionally, it became clear to Modi and Shah during the Karanataka election that Congress president Rahul Gandhi has not convinced enough people that he is a viable alternative to lead the opposition, let alone India. This has given them breathing space.
Yet, of late, it appears that Modi and Shah have broken out in a sprint towards the parliamentary election. Some calculations remain unaffected: the BJP is still on track to lose the heavyweight states of Rajasthan and MP. The major new factor in the mix is the external factor on the economy: the rising price of crude oil, combined with a falling rupee. It is the first economic crisis that the government is facing. (The November 2016 demonetisation was not a crisis per se, though it was massively inconvenient and led to large-scale agrarian distress, which is being tackled by the states but at the cost of each state's fiscal deficit.)
The government, having had no success in reducing bank non-performing assets (NPAs) or in encouraging investment for growth, has ridden on low petroleum prices for its economic management during its four years. Modi called himself a "lucky PM" because of the low oil prices, but that luck has now run out. With a falling rupee, this will have a multiplier effect on inflation. It's perhaps better to not risk delaying elections, lest the situation further deteriorates.
That's why it looks like a November-December election, though there are those who feel it is more likely to be a February 2019 election, with some other states advancing their assembly elections - Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Arunachal Pradesh. There is some merit in this. The BJP has installed its Governors in most states, and they would be go along in recommending early elections. Along with delayed polls in the four states mentioned earlier, Modi would almost achieve his stated aim of simultaneous polls. February is a good time for elections - even Vajpayee had wanted his 2004 parliamentary poll held in February but was foiled by then chief election commissioner, James Lyngdoh.
To this columnist, it still looks like the end of this year. Another clue is the recent leak by the government to India's largest newspaper that US President Donald Trump was invited as guest at the 2019 Republic Day celebrations. Trump may accept, given his love of pomp and pageantry. However, his attendance is not yet confirmed. Recall that when a similar invitation went to Barack Obama four years ago, it was not announced until the US President confirmed. What could be the hurry to announce such a coup this time, other than an early election?
Aditya's latest book, The Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace, co-written with AS Dulat and Asad Durrani, is now available. He tweets @autumnshade Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com
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