Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Time running out for Congress to gain ground

With the Lok Sabha Elections of 2024 looming, the Congress party, India's principal opposition, had seemed to be gaining ground just three months ago. Led by Rahul Gandhi, the party embarked on a nationwide march, rejuvenating its spirit after a series of electoral setbacks.

The party trounced Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the legislative elections in the southern state of Karnataka, which is home to Bengaluru, the startup capital of India. Opinion surveys also predicted that it would win four of the five states that voted in November 2023 for their state assemblies: Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chattisgarh, and Mizoram.

Party veterans claimed that those anticipated victories would have given the Congress the necessary momentum to challenge Modi in the general elections, which are still a few weeks away. The exact opposite happened. Opinion surveys were incorrect. Congress won a consolation victory in Telangana and was trounced by the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Mizoram.

A senior party leader questioned how the actual results contradicted opinion polls. "According to every opinion poll, the Congress had a 2 per cent vote advantage in the Madhya Pradesh elections, but we ended up losing by 8 per cent of the total."

Also Read: The election narrative: Ram temple politics and the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra

According to analysts and Congress leaders as the party gets ready to square off against Modi in the upcoming general election, providing prompt answers to questions on the discrepancy between the party's expectations and recent performance may be crucial to its prospects.

Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra, which saw him walk more than 4,000 kilometres (2,485 miles) over 150 days from the southern tip of the country, Kanyakumari, to Kashmir in the north, would have been validated by a strong showing in those state elections. In most of the states that held elections in November, the Congress faced up against the BJP directly and remained in the opposition, seeking to capitalise on voter discontent with the current administration.

A Congress leader said that he had warned the party that mobilisation efforts should centre around the state's 21 percent tribal vote, but his attempts to convince them had been unsuccessful.

With an emphasis on tribal populations and winning their support, the BJP, he claimed, made gains. The BJP gained control of numerous seats that the Congress had secured in the 2018 state elections. In Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, BJP reversed the results of 2018 and won many seats where tribal voters dominate.

By welcoming regional parties into a national coalition known as the INDIA alliance, the Congress attempted to turn around its fate. However, that made the BJP reevaluate its plan.

Since then, the BJP has effectively undermined the INDIA alliance: Bihar's chief minister, Nitish Kumar, has defected and joined the BJP-led NDA coalition. Mamata Banerjee, the chief of the Trinamool Congress, said that her party will run independently in Bengal for the Lok Sabha in 2024, citing the INDIA alliance's rejection of her ideas for seat-sharing.

Law enforcement agencies have targeted many Congress leaders. For example, Hemant Soren, the former chief minister of Jharkhand, was detained in January on accusations he denies having anything to do with corruption.

Party sources acknowledge that the Congress is equally to blame for fractions in INDIA alliance saying that the party is unwilling to accommodate partners in seat-sharing.

Analysts say that Congress is facing a dilemma that lies at the core of its failure. Right now, it wants to work with smaller parties, but eventually, it wants to run for every parliamentary seat on its own.

Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra aimed to sway public opinion but faced criticism for its timing and focus on philosophical issues amidst intense election campaigning. The march aims to travel 6,500 kilometres (4,000 miles) from the east in Manipur to the west in Maharashtra.

Analysts have questioned if the party's concentration on big philosophical issues makes sense given that the nation is currently engaged in winner-take-all election campaigns.

West Bengal and Bihar were among the many states traversed by the new march that was ruled by INDIA alliance member parties at the time. The chief minister of West Bengal, Banerjee, openly questioned the purpose of the march's route through an ally's state. Critics have questioned if Rahul Gandhi's brand is being cultivated in any way by the march.

A senior Congress leader disagreed insisting that Rahul does not yearn for power. He noted that members of the INDIA alliance would face off against the BJP and its coalition in the great majority of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.

Though observers say the Congress is finding it difficult to persuade voters to buy into its narrative that the next elections are a struggle for the survival of Indian democracy, the party has been portraying the BJP as an authoritarian force.

The party's unease has increased over the past few days. Senior Congressman and former chief minister of Maharashtra Ashok Chavan joined the BJP. Without delay, he was nominated to the Rajya Sabha, the parliament's upper body.

With time running out, the Congress faces the daunting task of harnessing public favour in its favour to stand a chance against the BJP in the upcoming elections.

There is not much time left, however.