Lok Sabha elections 2024: It will be battleground Thiruvananthapuram!

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor during a campaign in Thiruvananthapuram Kerala. Pic/Atul Kamble

With all 20 seats of Kerala going to polls today, mid-day met M G Radhakrishnan, a well-known political observer in the state capital Thiruvananthapuram. In a free-wheeling chat, Radhakrishnan discusses the prospects of the mainstream political parties and the challenges they face, in the Lok Sabha polls. Excerpts from the conversation:

Congress's Shashi Tharoor is facing the most challenging election this time. The Thiruvananthapuram constituency will see one of the fierce contests in this election. Senior Congress leader Shashi Tharoor has already achieved a hat trick here. Now he is contesting against BJP candidate and entrepreneur Rajeev Chandrasekhar, a three-time Rajya Sabha MP and former minister for industries. This seems to be a vital wicket for Tharoor.

Tharoor contested the first Lok Sabha elections from Thiruvananthapuram in 2009, winning by a margin of nearly 1 lakh votes. In 2014, he was up against O Rajagopal, the veteran BJP leader, and though he won, Tharoor's winning margin came down to 15,470 votes. In the 2019 general election, he secured 99,989 votes over his nearest rival.

Thiruvananthapuram is significant for the BJP and it is pinning its hopes here as the party came second only in this seat in the last two elections. He feels Tharoor's primary opponent, Chandrasekhar, will strengthen their chances. He can attract some votes beyond the Sangh Parivar constituency. Tharoor is popular among the young, upper-class, educated Hindu section of the population, making him prominent in this constituency. Chandrasekhar can attract some votes which the BJP could not win in the last two elections, and that is why it can be said he could poach Tharoor's votes. I still think Tharoor is the favourite here, and it isn't easy to dislodge him. Even though there could be a split in this constituency with the urban, young, political, and upper middle class, where Chandrasekhar could make some inroads, the minorities could be the strongest supporters of Tharoor.

About 30 per cent of the population in this constituency comprises minorities - Muslims and Christians. In 2014, this seat had witnessed the fiercest battle as Tharoor lagged behind O Rajagopal until the last round, so much so that the latter went public saying he had won. In the last round, Tharoor got all the votes, especially from the coastal sections. There could be some drop in the ballots because of the Vizhinjam Harbour deal. Most minority votes may go to Tharoor and the remaining to the CPI candidate. That could be problematic for Chandrasekhar and not easy to overcome.

Voter turnout is always good here, and on the occasion, it dropped last time in the coastal regions, veteran Congress leaders like AK Antony came out and spoke to Church leaders who urged people to vote. This helped Tharoor substantially.

Locals say they are not happy with Tharoor's performance.

Yes, there is a lot of criticism of Tharoor that he could not do much for the constituency. Tharoor's justification is that in the last two elections - 2014 and 2019, it was the BJP in power in the centre, so whatever he tried was not made possible by the central government. He also blamed the state government by saying the LDF did not support him. He claimed the Trivandrum Corporation, led by the Left, did not support him when he tried to bring in some investments. So, this could be a challenging issue for him, and Chandrasekhar is pointing out that despite being an MP for 15 years, Tharoor hasn't done much for the constituency. Chandrasekhar is positioning himself as an entrepreneur and technocrat and also possibly a minister if the BJP comes to power. He is positioning himself as the change. It may work to some extent in his favour.

Despite Thiruvananthapuram being an essential constituency for BJP, the party hasn't done much to attract voters. Not just the constituency but for the entire state, the party hasn't done much in terms of projects or budget allocation; Kerala is fighting with the Centre. In the Rail Budget, Kerala has been neglected. Though the BJP considers Kerala a possible wicket for the BJP, neither the central leadership nor the NDA government has helped Kerala in terms of investments. The central government's investments are decreasing in the last 15-20 years. This is what Tharoor is saying, and Chandrasekar has been complaining about him, but the latter has been a Rajya Sabha MP since 2006. Despite being a Malayalee, he has not done anything for Kerala. How can any Keralite trust him or the party in the future, say the voters?

The perception of the 70s that Kerala is a labour-problem state continues, but if you look at the statistics in the last two decades, industrial or labour disputes are very low. The Techno Park in Kerala employs over 50,000 people, and not a single day has been lost due to labour unrest. The minimum wage here is high, which may be a disincentive for investment. Kerala has risen in sectors like IT, healthcare, and tourism, for instance, but insufficient to solve Kerala's educated unemployment or lagging industries and agriculture.

Will BJP make in-roads in the South?
The party still has a long way to go, as it has not established credibility as an alternative to the LDF or the UDF. It hasn't positioned itself as a party which takes care of Kerala's needs. It hasn't. BJP has in-built structural issues like the minorities. How do you cross this thing if, despite its Hindu majoritarianism, the BJP can help Kerala?

The LDF has not functioned well, economic management is terrible, and the Congress has been tried many times, but what has the BJP to show as an alternative? Its leadership is bankrupt in Kerala, and I don't see any potential in BJP leadership in Kerala. BJP has been in power at the centre since 2014 but hasn't done anything for Kerala. So why should Kerala trust the BJP? Kerala people are educated, and they don't see anything significant in states run by the BJP.

If BJP is going to be the difference, it must show the difference. It hasn't. But now there is corruption, and there are the electoral bonds and washing machines. Anyone tainted in any party is happily welcomed into the BJP.

BJP has been complaining about dynasty politics against Congress, and all the sons and daughters of Congress leaders have joined the BJP. But it can give projects and investments to Kerala. The state government is the only government that has to pay R5000 crore for highway development, and this does not happen in the Northeast or Uttar Pradesh, for instance.

The state elections are between LDF and UDF. Whatever good the BJP hopes to have with the churches here was lost by what happened in Manipur. The Muslim community in Kerala is very advanced compared to other states in the country and has come up in every sphere. There has been a renaissance within the community because of foreign remittances. The education of women is high. The UCC and CAA have made the community very suspicious of the BJP. The Muslim League is a major political party and can claim 100 per cent wins in every constituency. They will never vote for the BJP despite having some Muslim leaders.

Migration is not a recent phenomenon

Kerala society has been traditionally footloose for two reasons: In the 70s, the oil boom helped a lot of Keralites for better money opportunities outside. There are no investment and employment opportunities here. In the last 15 years, over 2 lakh people surrendered their passports despite BJP's nationalism. As lakhs of students from India study abroad, while Kerala ranks 7th, this list is topped by Gujarat.

In 1956, Kerala was the poorest state in the country, and now it is among the top 10 wealthiest states. It is because of the education and public healthcare facilities. In terms of the Human Development Index (HDI) - literacy, sex ratio, education, etc., Kerala is the best. It attracts the most significant foreign remittances, and is why Kerala is still economically prosperous. Kerala has done reasonably well in the economy and very well in HDI. Gulf money has saved Kerala, but is that sustainable after COVID-19? The remittances haven't decreased, and people have returned to their jobs.

Kerala is a plantation economy and is dependent on international prices. Kerala has to get into new areas for development. For the social economy, the state has to earn more money. The tax rates are high, and the state has collected the money where it can. Most of the public sector undertakings suffering losses will continue because of left-of-centre political thinking. Out-of-the-box ideas are needed to bail out Kerala's weak programs. Higher education numbers are high, but quality is lacking. With its fragmented politics Kerala has to find solutions for its issues.

Rahul Gandhi and Wayanad

Gandhi is a national political leader and does not have much time for the constituency. Rahul Gandhi will win for sure. The Muslims and the Muslim League know that they have their only hope in Congress.