India likely to experience normal monsoon this year: Skymet

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India is expected to experience a 'normal' monsoon between June and September this year according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet which on Tuesday said that monsoon rains are expected to be 102 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four month period.

From June to September, there will be above-normal rains over central and western parts. There will be normal rains over northern and southern parts and below normal rains over North-east India and Eastern parts, the weather forecaster said.

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The 'Monsoon Forecast 2024' report suggests that India will experience favourable rainfall in the South, West, and Northwest regions of India. Core monsoon rainfed areas like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive adequate rainfall.

However, eastern states including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal face the risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months, while Northeast India may experience below-normal rains in the first half of the season. There will be above-normal rains over Kerala, Konka, Karnataka and Goa, and normal rains over central parts, Skymet said.

"The significant transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon," said Jatin Singh, MD, Skymet.

Singh said, "However monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase".

The Skymet report highlights that apart from the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influence the monsoon. The report suggests a positive IOD, which is expected to complement La Nina, enhancing the prospects of a better monsoon.

The rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina is anticipated to disrupt the onset of the season, while rainfall distribution throughout the season may be uneven.

Geographically, the report predicts favourable rainfall in the South, West, and Northwest regions of India. Core monsoon rainfed areas like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive adequate rainfall. However, eastern states including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal face the risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months, while Northeast India may experience below-normal rains in the first half of the season.

According to the report, the monsoon probabilities for June to September indicate a 10 per cent chance of excess rainfall, a 45 per cent chance of normal rainfall, with a 20 per cent chance of both above-normal, 15 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall, and a 10 per cent chance of drought conditions.

On a monthly scale, June is forecast to receive 95 per cent of the LPA, July 105 per cent, August 98 per cent, and September 110 per cent.

Despite the challenges posed by transitioning climatic conditions, the report predicts a normal monsoon season this year.

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