Covid-19: Imminent third wave in Sept-Oct, say experts

Beneficiaries without regard for social distancing norms wait to receive a dose of COVID-19 vaccine at Shivaji Nagar vaccination centre in Gurugram on Monday. Pic/PTI

An expert panel, set up by an institute under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), has predicted a third wave of Covid-19 hitting the country anytime between September and October and suggested significantly ramping up vaccination pace.

The committee of experts, constituted by the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), also said children will have a similar risk as adults since paediatric facilities, doctors and equipment like ventilators, ambulances, etc. are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of children are infected.

The report, which has been submitted to the Prime Minister's Office, observed that only around 7.6 percent (10.4 cr) people are fully vaccinated in India and if the current vaccination rate is not increased, India can witness six lakh cases per day in the next wave. "Leading experts have repeatedly warned of an imminent third Covid-19 wave in India. Epidemiologists predict a series of surges till we achieve herd immunity through infection or vaccination and the disease becomes endemic," the report said.

The NIDM report quoted the prediction of experts from IIT Kanpur which suggested three likely scenarios for the third wave. In scenario one, it said that the third wave could peak in October with 3.2 lakh positive cases per day. In scenario two, with new and more virulent variants, the third wave could peak in September with five lakh positive cases per day. In scenario three, experts predict the third wave could peak in late October with two lakh positive cases per day.

According to the report, earlier, it was proposed that if 67 per cent of the population became immune (few by infection and rest through vaccination), herd immunity could be achieved. But this is now complicated by new and more virulent mutated variants of SARS Cov-2 that have the ability to escape immunity from earlier infections and in some cases even prevalent vaccines, it said. This has pushed the target immune population for achieving herd immunity to 80-90 percent. Hence, our health system and vaccines are caught in a race against the virus and are trying to catch up with risks that are evolving every day creating uncertainty all over the world, it said.

Certificates for vaccine trial participants

People who participated in Covid-19 vaccine trials will be issued digital certificates through the Co-WIN portal, the Union health ministry said.

Schools, colleges reopen in Karnataka

Schools and Pre-University (PU) colleges in Bengaluru and other districts of Karnataka where Covid test positivity rate is less than two per cent reopened for students of stds 9-12 on Monday after a gap of five months.

3,24,49,306
Total no. of Coronavirus cases in India so far

4,34,756
Total no. of deaths due to the virus in India so far

3,33,924
Total no. of active cases in India

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