Cash shortfall in system at Rs 70k crore, says SBI research

A stray dog outside an ATM which was out of cash, in Nagpur. Pic/PTI

Even as government and Reserve Bank have asserted that there is no currency shortage, SBI Research yesterday pegged the cash shortfall in the system at a whopping Rs 70,000 crore, which is a third of the monthly withdrawals at ATMs.

In a note that comes a day after reports of currency shortages made national headlines, it depended on nominal economic growth, currency with the public and the rise in digital transactions to arrive at the shortfall estimate. A 9.8 per cent nominal GDP growth would have taken the currency available with the public to Rs 19.4 trillion by March 2018, as against the actual availability of Rs 17.5 trillion, it said, stressing that the gap of Rs 1.9 trillion is not the shortfall. The proportion of digital transactions stands at a low Rs 1.2 trillion only, much down the immediate months following the November 2016 note-ban.

"The apparent shortfall thus could be around Rs 70,000 crore or even less," it said. Reacting to reports of the currency shortage, it said the currency in circulation has breached the pre-note ban levels of Rs 17.84 trillion.