Sharad Pawar’s 3D-chess: Castling Ajit to checkmate the BJP?

NCP chief Sharad Pawar with his nephew Ajit and other party leaders, at the launch of his autobiography on Tuesday. Pic/Shadab Khan

Sharad Pawar's decision to step down from the Nationalist Congress Party's leadership wasn't taken in isolation. His wife Pratibha, daughter Supriya and nephew Ajit were kept in the loop, before taking an unexpected route, a non-political function such as a book release, to startle the first and second lines of leadership and the cadre.

Pawar had come fully prepared. He read from a written document, which was circulated in English as well, considering the national news value. Following protest and emotional outburst of leaders and party workers, Ajit told media persons that when the senior leaders met Sharad Pawar later in day, he sought two-three days to rethink about reconsidering his decision to resign. This calmed the youngsters who had sat in protest at Y B Chavan Centre.

Also Read: Maharashtra: The bombshell that shook rank-and-file

NCP leaders Supriya Sule, Ajit Pawar and others outside Y B Chavan Centre on Tuesday. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

What happens if Pawar withdraws his resignation?
Well, nothing will change for the party, whose members once again showed that the octogenarian meant the world to them. In fact, Tuesday's surprise declaration yielded an effect that any party boss would desire the most, to establish his supremacy and control. The incident has also passed a message to the detractors, the disgruntled and the collaborators of rivals, if any, that any untoward move on their part would cost them dearly. Political observers believe that Pawar expected such an impact when speculations of a split in the NCP refused to die down, even after Ajit, who once tried to split the NCP and almost joined forces with the BJP, declared his lifelong commitment to the party. The very Ajit was seen commanding the emotionally charged crowd, albeit with some difficulty. The element of distrust was visible when Ajit tried to convince the NCP workers to accept Pawar's decision. People wanted Surpriya to speak and request her father, but she didn't when Ajit stopped her. That must have raised eyebrows, because the family has been drawn into a battle of accession on many occasions, despite the head's denial.

What if the boss doesn't return?
Firstly, the party will have to settle for a new leadership; a stoic one or a rubber stamp. Ajit clearly said on Tuesday he wasn't interested in the post. Then who else? Supriya? Ajit also said the leaders who tried convincing the boss later Tuesday suggested that a working president be appointed to share the workload of the national president, who ultimately will be none other than Pawar himself. If so, then, Pawar will be in total control as long as he wishes. If Pawar has total control of the party and takes part in political activities, strategising and campaigning, without which the party isn't expected to perform better in the upcoming elections, the Maha Vikas Aghadi will also be getting a much-needed push.

Pawar's status in national politics is not expected to change much even if he doesn't officially lead the NCP. He is the kind of a leader who cannot rest as long as he has the strength and he breathes politics. However, he will be free to disown any decision that goes against his proclaimed position or the pre- and post-poll alliance politics. He may simply shrug off responsibility in case the most influential leader in the NCP rank (we don't need to identify) goes against his advice (if sought at all). Though Congress and Shiv Sena leaders have said the leadership change will not affect their relationship with the NCP, it is well known that some strong people in Pawar's party have reservations about working with the Uddhav Sena in particular. At the Delhi level, the national-turned-regional party's status will be weighed in terms of the Lok Sabha seats it wins the next year (and in alliance with who). Sharad Pawar managed to get the most even with a number less than 10. It would be interesting to see the NCP's show without Pawar holding the presidency.

Key threat nullified

There is another angle to Pawar's shock treatment. The parties, which are attempting to weaken the NCP using various ways, one of which is luring some top leaders away, will have to consider the charged up NCP cadre and Pawar's sympathisers, who increased his number in 2019 Assembly polls to be in a position to experiment the MVA. It is another story that the three-party coalition collapsed and now it is attempting to rebuild it ahead of the next year's polls. Pawar has certainly put his party in circulation at the right time.

Sharad Pawar: A political timeline

1956 Year Sharad Pawar called for a protest march on Goan Independence in Pravaranagar, Maharashtra, marked the beginning of his first recorded political activism at a young age

1958 Pawar joined Youth Congress and demonstrated his support for the Congress Party

1962 Became President of the Pune district Youth Congress

1967 When Pawar was 27 years old, he was nominated as a candidate for Assembly elections from Baramati constituency. Pawar won the election and made it to the assembly from the then-undivided Congress Party.

1969 Congress faced a stumbling block within the party resulting in expulsion of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi from the party. Following the split, Pawar along with Yashwantrao Chavan became a part of Indira Gandhi's Indian National Congress (Requisitionists) faction.

1975-77 Sharad Pawar served as the home affairs minister in the govt of Shankarrao Chavan. In later years, when the Congress party again split into Congress (I) and Congress (U), Pawar sided with Congress (U).

1978 In the run-up to the state elections, both factions of Congress participated separately but formed the government in the coalition supporting Vasantdada Patil against the Janata Party. Pawar got the portfolio of Minister of Industry and Labour in the government led by Vasantdada Patil.

1978 At the age of 38, Pawar left Congress (U) to form a government with Janata Party, and amid this, Sharad Pawar became the youngest Chief Minister of Maharashtra in 1978.

1983 Pawar became the president of Congress (I)

1984 He was elected to Lok Sabha from the Baramati parliamentary constituency.

1985 Pawar again won from the Baramati assembly constituency, he decided to stay with Maharashtra's state politics - becoming the leader of the opposition coalition PDF - as he resigned from the Lok Sabha seat

1988 Pawar became the chief minister of Maharashtra for the second time

1987 He returned to Congress (I)

1990 Pawar became chief minister of Maharashtra for the third time

1991 Pawar became the Defence Minister in the Union Government led by Prime Minister Narasimha Rao. He handled the portfolio till 1993.

1993 March Pawar became the chief minister of Maharashtra for the fourth time. Pawar remained Chief Minister

1999 Sharad Pawar, along with P A Sangma and Tariq Anwar were expelled from Congress for what has been described as the trio "opposing Sonia Gandhi's as the president" of Congress. The same year, in June, Pawar along with Sangma founded Nationalist Congress Party. However, NCP came into coalition with the state Congress to form a government following the 1999 assembly elections to defeat Shiv Sena-BJP

2004 Pawar became Minister of Agriculture in the UPA government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

2014 Pawar's NCP lost in the state elections in which BJP was elected as the largest party in the election

2019 Following state elections and after a whole lot of political crisis, NCP, Congress and Shiv Sena's coalition government - led by Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray as the chief minister - was formed

2020 Pawar was re-elected as an MP to the Rajya Sabha

2023 Pawar resigned as president of NCP