No surge seen in COVID-19 numbers despite large crowds during holidays, BMC health officials

Experts advise masking up. Maharashtra reported 61 new cases on Monday. Pic/Satej Shinde

The genome sequencing pace in the state has accelerated, revealing that the COVID-19 variant JN.1 has been the cause of a rapid surge since December. Mumbai, confirming 22 cases of the variant out of the 391 cases reported in December, disclosed that two samples are from outside Mumbai, and one sample is a duplicate, according to civic health officials. All the other 19 patients experienced mild symptoms and recovered, even though two of them had comorbidities.

In contrast, Maharashtra reported 61 new cases on Monday, with 23 of them recorded in the city, bringing Mumbai's active cases to 166, while the state's active cases remain above 800. Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, former head of ICMR leading Maharashtra's COVID-19 task force, commented, "We were expecting the numbers to rise after the holidays due to large crowded places. What is significant is that the numbers have not increased as much. The variant continues to be mild; hospitalization has not increased much, and neither have the deaths." The task force had advised caution for the first 15 days of January as cases were expected to rise. "Vigilance needs to continue, and people need to take preventive measures, especially if they have comorbidities," he emphasized.

Dr Rajesh Karyakarte, a member of the state's COVID-19 task force overseeing genomic sequencing, mentioned that JN.1 has almost replaced all the other earlier variants. "In a few more weeks, we will understand more about the variant. But it is essential to highlight that the variant is spreading fast, and yet we have a very small number of hospital admissions; that is a good finding for us," he said.

On January 7, Maharashtra had 41 hospital admissions, with 15 requiring admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Since mid-December, there have been seven fatalities in the state, including the one reported in Mumbai on Sunday. Both hospital admissions and fatalities have been observed in patients with pre-existing comorbidities.

Given the high number of people in Maharashtra living with comorbidities such as diabetes, and a large number of individuals who are immunocompromised, Dr Karyakarte stated, "The number of people seeking hospital care is very small. Hospitals are testing patients seeking care due to illness, and the numbers are still low. Yet we will continue to monitor and assess the situation, particularly the hospital admission rate." So, if the numbers of new cases have not increased even after large crowds during the holidays, when asked a question, can we say that we are nearing the end of the rise in cases? Both Dr Gangakhedkar and Dr Karyakarte said we will have to wait until January 15 to have an answer to that.

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COVID-19 cases reported in December