Andheri East Assembly by-election: A poll that cannot be bypassed for its impact

Minority and South Indian voters will play the most important role in the November 3 Andheri East by-poll. These categories comprise about 27 per cent of the voter population. The constituency offers the archetypal image of a cosmopolitan Mumbai. According to the data compiled by political parties, the constituency has about 2.6 lakh eligible voters.

While Muslims are concentrated in Marol and Chakala, the Catholic voters that account for 5 per cent to 6 per cent of the minority community are spread across Marol, Kondivita, Chakala and Gundavli. Rutuja Latke of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Murji Patel from the BJP and Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena alliance are in the fray.

Rutuja Latke after filing her nomination on Oct 14. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

As per data compiled by political parties, the constituency has about 2.6 lakh eligible voters of which the Marathi population stands at 37 per cent to 38 per cent. While north Indians comprise 17 per cent to 18 per cent, about one-fifth of the overall voters are Gujaratis. The population of south Indian voters stands at 4 per cent to 5 per cent.

Experts feel Marathi voters will be uniformly divided among the BJP and Thackeray Sena, while north Indians, the Hindi-speaking crowd, and Gujaratis traditionally go with the BJP.

Also Read: Bypolls in seven assembly seats: All eyes on Sena factions in Andheri East

Muslims, Catholics and south Indians are predominantly Congress supporters. In the 2009 election, Congress's Suresh Shetty was elected from this constituency. With the Congress and NCP backing Latke, it is likely that their votes will go to Thackeray Sena's candidate.

"The Congress and NCP have supported Thackeray. Also, Thackeray's stand over the past two and a half years could help his party's candidate get votes from the minority community," said Sandeep Pradhan, a political expert. Though Andheri East is not a traditional Thackeray stronghold, it can potentially stage an upset, said another expert.

"The demography of this constituency is in favour of the Congress, Ramesh Latke's public relations helped him win the seat in 2019. Now that the Congress is also with Thackeray, there won't be any problem with the anti-BJP votes going to Rutuja Latke. Also, the Thackeray Sena is being seen as the anti-Modi face of Maharashtra. Plus, Rutuja Latke will also get sympathy votes," said political expert Abhay Deshpande.

38%
Marathi speakers

27%
Muslims and South Indians

18%
North Indians