Mumbai: Swelling crowds are now cause for worry, say health experts

A beneficiary receives a vaccine dose at Nair hospital on Tuesday. Pic/Suresh Karkera

The re-emergence of in-person political events and protests and a growing number of citizens in public spaces is a sign of trouble despite Covid cases plateauing in the city and across Maharashtra, say health experts. The scene over the past few days in Mumbai is similar to the beginning of the second wave and it might just be the proverbial lull before the storm, they say, insisting that people must stick to Covid-appropriate behaviour.

Dr Wiqar Shaikh, Professor of Medicine, Grant Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals, expressed serious concerns over the rallies and gatherings across the country. "We are in the middle of what we would call a ‘thick tail' of the second wave," he said. India reported over 37,500 new cases and nearly 650 deaths on Tuesday.

The situation is equally alarming in other countries. He said, "While the US reported 2.6 lakh new cases, the UK saw more than 30,000 new cases yesterday. These countries are already in the middle of the third wave and indeed some countries have suffered a fourth wave of the pandemic." Dr Shaikh said the third wave was inevitable in India and could hit by September-October and that there could be more cases and deaths.

Being fully vaccinated is no ticket to dropping the guard. He said almost 90 per cent of the Israeli population has received both doses, yet the country is reporting about 8,000 daily cases. It has now ordered a third booster dose for its people. "Indeed, it is not surprising that vaccine manufacturers such as Pfizer have confirmed that two doses of their Covid-19 vaccines would provide protection for 5 to 6 months only and a booster dose would be needed." An annual dose of Covid vaccine could become the norm worldwide, he said.

With only 40 per cent of Indians having received the first dose, he said an adequate supply of vaccines was the need of the hour. Dr Shaikh called for strict curbs on political and religious gatherings and big weddings apart from heavy fines on the maskless.

Dr Subhash Hira, Professor of Global Health at the University of Washington-Seattle and an infectious disease expert, said, "History seems to be repeating itself and leading to upsurges in Covid-19 pandemic waves across the globe. For example, the ‘lull-point' called a plateau seen in India between wave-1 and wave-2 during October 2020 and March 2021 was a mirage of hope and taken as a victory in the field of public health."

Also read: 75 per cent of Navi Mumbai given first dose of Covid-19 vaccine, 28 per cent fully vaccinated

He said, "While India successfully launched and is conducting an indigenous vaccine programme that has so far covered 59 crore adults [18 per cent have got two doses], there was an innocent apathy in the air associated with a sigh of relief, and a false sense of security. So, when wave-2 got triggered by the Delta variant and hit India in March 2021, the health system, its implementers, and communities were all caught unawares. The pandemic's case reproduction rate grew exponentially, and its doubling time was between 3-7 days. Now that scientists and experts have been closely monitoring the emergence of Delta-plus variants in most states of India, its mathematical models suggest wave-3 to emerge in mid-September 2021 because over 50 per cent of adults (vaccinated or unvaccinated) defy barrier methods of mask usage, physical distance, and sanitisation."

False sense of security

The expert added, "Generally, the vaccinated adults have a false sense of security and they consider themselves to be fully protected from SARS-CoV-2.

Many are even back to their democratic activities including morchas, gatherings, and large meetings. They are possibly unaware that they can participate in democratic activities after two vaccine shots and strict observation of barrier methods. Such exercise will bring the burden of Covid in India to a low level."

Dr Santosh Bansode, HoD-Emergency Medicine, Wockhardt Hospitals, Mumbai Central, said the picture unfolding in India is similar to the one at the end of the first wave. "People are behaving casually, political and social programmes with large numbers of people gathering are emerging. On top of that, those who took two vaccine doses are thinking they are completely protected from Covid-19 virus and behaving in a more casual way. Everywhere we are seeing clusters of people."

Dr Bansode said, "We must think about Delta variants that even infect fully vaccinated people. Although the symptoms will be mild, these people can further spread the disease to unvaccinated people or vulnerable populations unknowingly and that will be a major problem."

No massing of people and adherence to Covid protocols are sacrosanct, he said. "We should be very careful while travelling on public transport. We must learn from the mistakes of the past. If we don't learn now then there are high chances that we will be in trouble and the healthcare system will be under stress again. Think now, act now to get saved in the near future," Dr Bansode added.

37,500
New cases in India on Tuesday