Mumbai’s second wave of COVID-19 pandemic threatens to be bigger

Antigen tests being conducted at LTT on Wednesday. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

Considering the pace at which the daily COVID-19 cases in the city are increasing, experts are of the opinion that the second wave of infections might turn out to be worse than the first in the next two weeks. The city had reported the maximum number of daily cases - 2,848 - on October 7 last year. An administrative official of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) said that the daily figure might go beyond that in the next 14 days.

A health worker takes a swab sample of a man for a COVID-19 test at Topiwala Municipal Maternity Home, Goregaon on Wednesday. Pic/Satej Shinde

The city experienced the first peak of COVID-19 cases in September-October last year amid the lockdown. The daily cases were between 1000 and 1,300 from July to September. From September 8 onwards, the number of daily cases was beyond 2,000 and it took another month to reach the highest level. On October 7, the maximum number of cases was recorded. Since February 9 this year the city has been witnessing the second wave.

The number of cases in the city crossed 2,000 on Wednesday. In January-February the daily cases were on the decline from 600 to 400. On February 9, there were only 375 cases, which doubled in just eight days and 721 cases were registered on February 17. Within the next two weeks the cases reached 1,103 on March 3. And on Wednesday, 2,377 fresh cases were registered.

"If one looks at the growth rate, the cases may go beyond the maximum number that was recorded in the first wave, within the next week or two," said a senior BMC official. But the official added that as per the trend in western countries, the cases reduce rapidly after hitting a peak.

"The situation was different in October. The lockdown was in place and there were many restrictions, so the number of cases was increasing slowly. But now everything is open, including the locals, so the cases are increasing very fast," said Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner of the BMC.

He added, "We have increased testing and surveillance, cases are being registered against those who are not following quarantine rules and fines are being imposed on mask-less people. People need to follow social distancing rules and other restrictions to help us curb the transmission."

"It will take two weeks for the impact of the measures taken to curb the cases to show. Till then the cases will rise," said Dr Rahul Pandit, one of the experts of the state-appointed COVID task force. He added, "The silver line is that many patients are asymptomatic and the death rate is very low in the city. Even the pressure on the health system is lower than what it was in June and July."