Mumbai rains: Another dry week ahead

Brace yourself for another dry week. The city is unlikely to see heavy showers from Monday to Friday. Though there will be minor rainfall activity in patches during the entire week, it will still be hot and humid, meteorologists have predicted. Thanks to the ‘break monsoon' phase from August 1 to August 13, the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) Santacruz observatory recorded 30 mm rainfall in the past 13 days as against the monthly normal of 561 mm. The Colaba observatory recorded 28 mm during the same time.

Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather, a popular private weather blog, said, "The monsoon axis is positioned to the north of its normal position and has been stubbornly stuck for the past 10 days near the Himalayan foothills. This created a break monsoon phase, leading to low rainfall in central India, which includes Maharashtra. This occurrence is normal in August, and records show it can last for as long as 21 days. However, we expect the axis to move south by August 19."

Kids leap into the waters of the Arabian Sea to beat the heat at Colaba on August 12. Pic/Shadab Khan

Between June 1 and August 13, Santacruz recorded 2,348 mm of rainfall, 667 mm more than usual, whereas Colaba's seasonal total this year is 1,785 mm, 268 mm more than the typical amount recorded.

‘Still have 17 days left'

"This year, we estimate the condition of low rainfall in Maharashtra, and Mumbai, will continue at least remain till August 19. July's rains were very good, breaking the monthly all-time record. Meanwhile, August has been dry so far. Actually, it seems comparatively drier after getting a surplus. But, we still have 17 days left to reach the normal August quota of 561 mm," said Kapadia. As per Vagaries of the Weather, the driest August on record was in 1972, when only 108 mm of rainfall was recorded in the entire month.

According to Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, June ended with a rain deficiency of 10 per cent. "The monsoon progressed at a faster pace during the last week of June and covered the entire country well before July 2. Successive low-pressure areas and depressions developed over the West Central Bay of Bengal and moved inland. Flooding rain was witnessed over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Mumbai. Monsoon rain during July remained surplus. The monsoon surplus reached seven per cent in the last week of July," said a meteorologist from Skymet.

"Ongoing rain activities over the northwest and central parts of the country have reduced significantly during the past 10 days. The seven per cent surplus is now consumed. Going ahead, we expect monsoon rain to slip in the negative. The impact of El Nino will be seen during August and September. The axis of the monsoon trough has shifted to the foothills of the Himalayas, leading to break monsoon conditions. We do not expect any significant rain activities over the northwest central and south peninsula for at least the next week," Skymet stated.

Mercury rising

With the dry weather, the days have become warmer, reaching almost 32 degrees Celsius while the nights are stuffy at 26 to 27 degrees Celsius. "Next week, till August 18-19 at least, Mumbai is not expected to see any recovery in the rainfall intensity. The days will continue to be warmer," said Kapadia. The IMD's Santacruz and Colaba observatories on Sunday recorded temperatures of 31.5 and 31.8 degrees Celsius respectively.

561 mm
Usual amount of rainfall received every August