Mumbai: Is current spike in Covid-19 cases ending?

A beneficiary gets a shot at Nair hospital in June. Doctors urge people to wear masks and get vaccinated. Pic/Ashish Raje

The rate of increase of Covid-19 cases has been declining in Mumbai. Though the number of cases increased last week compared to the week before, the rate of growth dwindled from 125 per cent to 28 per cent. In the earlier waves, too, the peak was reached when the growth rate decreased and then the overall number of cases also came down. However, an official says we must wait for a week to review if the curve is flattening.

It will be interesting to see whether the current surge follows the trend of the earlier waves. Cases in the city have been increasing since the last week of May. The number of hospitalisations and serious patients, too, is on the rise. In June, 17 deaths have been reported till date, which is much higher than the three or four deaths per month since March. But the situation could improve now if one goes by the previous rate of increase of cases.

A woman is tested at BYL Nair Hospital on June 7. Pic/Ashish Raje

There were 4,880 cases between May 30 and June 5, which were more than double those of the earlier week. Even in the following week, cases rose two-fold. But in the week that ended on Sunday (June 19), the rate of increase of cases came down to a mere 28 per cent.

The third wave, too, which had peaked between January 9 and 11, had a similar increase rate. The rate of increase of cases went down from six-fold to three-fold in the week of January 3 to 9 and then the cases saw a downward trend. A similar trend was seen during the second wave.

"We need to wait for another week to review whether the curve is flattening or plateauing. There are several factors affecting the number of cases like inadequate testing, seasonal variations and so on," said Dr Rahul Pandit, member of the State Covid Task Force. The daily average number of tests between June 6 and 12 was 15,000, which came down to 14,000 per day from June 13 to 19.

Dr Sanjeev Kumar, additional BMC commissioner, and Dr Mangala Gomare, BMC's executive health officer, remained unavailable for comment despite calls and messages.

13,897
No. of cases in the week that ended June 19