Mumbai: Dwindling lifeline or evolving workforce?

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Mumbai doesn't stop. However, statistics indicate that it is seemingly taking a breather until it is "back on track" at full steam. According to official estimates, the city's lifeline, local trains, have not reached their pre-COVID capacity yet.

On Central Railway (CR), the number of suburban passengers was 151.37 crore in 2019-20, which dropped to 70.75 crore in 2021-22 - a drop of 53.26 per cent due to COVID-19. The numbers rose to 129.16 crore 2022-23 - an upward trend of 82.55 per cent. In 2023-24, the numbers rose to 137.7 crore - a rise of 6.61 per cent from the previous year. For the ongoing year (till July 2024), the figures were 44.62 crore as compared to 43.56 crore in 2023-24 (till July) - a rise of 2.45 per cent.

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On Western Railway (WR), the number of suburban passengers was 124.15 crore in 2019-20, which dropped to 55.2 crore in 2021-22 - a drop of 55.54 per cent. The numbers rose to 97 crore in 2022-23 - a rise of 75.72 per cent. And in 2023-24, the numbers rose to 101.26 crore - a rise of 4.39 per cent over 2022-23. Till July 2024, the figures were 26.96 crore as compared to 25.29 crore in 2023-24 (till July), a rise of 6.6 per cent.

Passengers on CR, which usually sees higher footfall, had dropped to nearly nine lakh per day, and the WR saw around 11 lakh commuters per day during the pandemic. Stakeholders and experts attributed the drop in ridership to multiple factors, including change in work culture post-pandemic, the rise in the number of private vehicles, private bus and cab services, in addition to auto rickshaws and the Metros. Experts said the condition of crowding and hygiene of suburban railways may also have kept many away from local trains post COVID-19.

CR chief PRO Swapnil Nila said, "Hybrid work culture, WFH, the rise in private vehicles, and app-based bus and cab services have reduced train passengers. Staggered office timings have also contributed to a decrease in passengers in trains. Also to note, these numbers are of ticketed passengers. Staggered office timings have also contributed to a decrease in passengers."

Meanwhile, WR chief PRO Vineet Abhishek added, "New Metro routes parallel to the western line, as well as business shifts from South Mumbai to areas like SEEPZ have also led to changing commuter preferences."

Popular bus operator Cityflo says it mainly caters to corporate crowds and that, too, a minuscule population of the suburban railway's nearly 8 million passengers. "Mumbai suburban railways carry over 7.5 million passengers daily, but only about 3,000, or 0.04 per cent, have switched to Cityflo. Cityflo primarily moves corporate professionals who used cars, cabs, and two-wheelers; which constitutes 80 per cent of our ridership," Cityflo's co-founder and CEO Jerin Venad said.

Mumbai's Metro network of 46.5 km with 42 stations falls mostly in the western suburbs with three lines. The Blue Line 1 (Versova to Ghatkopar) carries around 5 lakh commuters on weekdays, and the average ridership of Yellow Line 2A (Dahisar East to Andheri West) and Red Line 7 (Ovaripada to Gundavali) is about 2.5 lakh.

RTO records say the city's vehicle count is about 46 lakh (April 2024 data), indicating that Mumbai has seen a rise in private vehicles. The city's vehicle density is at its peak, with 2,300 vehicles per km in 2024. In 2019, it was 1,840 vehicles/km and 1,150 vehicles/km in 2014.

Senior transport expert with Mumbai Mobility Forum & Mumbai Vikas Samiti, AV Shenoy, said, "In a city with failed public transport, the drop in local train numbers could be due to multiple factors, but the main reasons could be hybrid work culture, use of personal or company vehicles, private services like Cityflo or Mylo, Uber/Ola and auto rickshaws and cabs, as is evident from more congestion on roads. I don't think Metros have much impact as the new lines - 2A and 7 - have hardly any occupancy."

Mobility expert Rishi Aggarwal said, "I think it is possibly due to the city becoming more polycentric - shorter distances not requiring trains, possibly a metro city effect." "Look at the vehicles on the street. It is obvious [that people are using private vehicles and services]… Also, WFH is proving to be economical for companies [so the trains are less crowded]," Jitendra Gupta of the Citizen Transport Committee explained.

Public policy (transport) expert Paresh Rawal, said, "...The reduction in numbers could be attributed to alternative transportation, which means it is not just WFH - which is gradually becoming non-existent - at least in the segment we are talking about. However, the answer to this lies in is why people are looking for alternative means of transportation. Mumbai suburban trains' frequency, punctuality, and overall ease of travel have only deteriorated, leading commuters to look for alternatives…"

"There should be a comprehensive survey on the travel patterns of Mumbaikars in 2024. There could be multiple journeys that one takes from home to workplace, including taking an auto rickshaw to the station, the train, then a kaali-peeli cab, or private buses. Complete research done including all such factors over four or five months will provide us solid data. That would help us make some sensible policies. As of now, we are just fixing broken things...," he added. Mobility expert Aggarwal echoed the opinion.

Ashok Datar, senior transport expert and chairman of the Mumbai Environmental Social Network, explained, "Today, on average, we have 70 lakh suburban train commuters, 30 lakh use BEST buses, eight lakh use Metros, 25 lakh cars, and three lakh use taxis and auto rickshaws, bringing the total commuters in Mumbai's public transport system to 108 lakh. To understand traffic, it's essential to analyse the usage of road space by different types of vehicles, including parking spaces... We can optimise road space by prioritising more space-efficient buses... We have invested thousands of crores in urban roads and Metros without giving enough thought to measuring and optimising the use of existing road space."

Then why are stations bursting at seams? The answer to this is probably a huge number of undocumented ticketless passengers. The official statistics are based on the ticket sales of various categories.
Officials said on average, about 25 per cent of passengers travel ticketless despite the "cheapest fares on Mumbai suburban railway".

To a question on the pre-COVID-19 data, which had similar lacunae, so what makes so much of a difference now, officials said the number of ticket checkers (TCs) on suburban railway, too, had gone down and there were hardly new recruits post-pandemic as old hands retired. This has probably led to a rise in ticketless passengers.

Despite this, railways have managed to penalise a huge number of defaulters, though there is scope of improvement. During the fiscal year 2023-24, CR Mumbai earned R115 crore from 20.56 lakh cases of ticketless or irregular travel and un-booked luggage. WR collected R46 crore from 9.62 lakh such cases. However, more TCs and increased fine/penalty will act as a further deterrent against the menace.