Mumbai: Covid-19 cases plateau, but deaths may continue, say experts

The number of COVID-19 cases in the city seems to have reached a plateau, said experts, adding that the tally would fluctuate for a while, but won't increase sharply. However, the public must not drop their guard when it comes to precautionary measures against the infection, they cautioned.

According to the weekly report of the state health department, there has been a drop of 11.43 per cent in fresh cases compared to the previous year. The test positivity rate (TPR), however, has declined by only about 1 per cent. The city's weekly TPR dropped to 15.54 per cent (June 21-27) from 16.23 per cent (June 14-20).

SevenHills's Additional Dean Dr Smita Chavan said, "Since the past two weeks, there has been a decline in cases, and I believe we are in the plateau phase. The cases would fluctuate a bit, but won't go up as much as we saw in the third wave. We might even see the same figures for a few more days, after which there may be a drop."

Dr Lancelot Pinto, consultant pulmonologist and epidemiologist, P D Hinduja Hospital, said, "Although reported numbers are difficult to interpret since a vast majority of testing are being done with home kits, the overall declining trend seems consistent with our clinical and anecdotal experiences. The timeline also seems similar to past surges, like the Omicron surge in January. Hopefully, this declining trend represents the waning of the present surge in Mumbai and will stay consistent."

The state report also showed that before June 21, Mumbai had the highest TPR, but Pune took over in the past week (June 21-27) at 22.86 per cent. Mumbai's TPR was 16.37 per cent and Thane's was 15.80 per cent.

Until June 28, around 40 COVID-19 deaths were reported in the city. COVID-19 death review committee head Dr Avinash Supe said, "It seems that there has been no rise in the cases from the past two weeks. I think the cases might dip further, but we might continue to see daily deaths as we have seen this trend before as well, like in the third wave. It will take two to three weeks for a drop in the death figure."

Weekly comparison

June 21-27 June 14-20
Tests: 80,273 Tests: 86,758
Cases: 12,479 Cases: 14,089
TPR: 15.54 per cent TPR: 16.23 per cent