Mumbai can soon be in eye of the storm and any safety plan might be inadequate

The pavement opposite Taj Mahal Palace Hotel caved in, after Cyclone Tauktae grazed past Mumbai on Monday. Pic/Suresh Karkera

Mumbai's recent resurgence from the extremely severe cyclonic storm Tauktae, bears an uncanny resemblance, in terms of sheer luck, to June 2020, when Cyclone Nisarga narrowly missed the island city, leaving neighbouring coastal areas to bear the brunt.

With Mumbai reeling under the impact of climate change, the question that environmentalists and climate scientists are asking is whether the city is prepared to brave the storm, if and when it hits.

"Our department has noticed that the periodicity of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and over the Arabian Sea seems to have increased over the last few years," said Manisha Mhaiskar, principal secretary of Maharashtra's Environment and Climate Change department. "Studies indicate that this is primarily due to an increase in the surface sea temperatures."

Mahesh Palawat and Rishi Aggarwal

But Mhaiskar says that the impending danger is not from cyclones alone. "When people spoke of climate change earlier, everyone thought that it was a remote phenomenon - like ice melting in Antarctica. But, what we are trying to tell people of our state is that climate change isn't remote, it is happening right here, at our doorstep. Moreover, the increase in erratic climate events, which could be in the form of a cyclone one year, heavy rain the next, and drought after that, are impacting us already," she says. She feels that all states would need to work together to face this new reality.

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Cyclone is city's reality

Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said that while a cyclone has never directly hit Mumbai, the possibility of such an occurrence cannot be ruled out, in the near future.

"Nisarga made a landfall south of Mumbai and Tauktae made a landfall in the north of Mumbai, over Gujarat, so there is a very high probability that if any cyclone occurs in the South Central Arabian Sea, it may reach Mumbai," he says.

Pawat also echoes Mhaiskar's sentiments on the increased periodicity in cyclones developing over the Arabian Sea. "Earlier, we were seeing - with a few exceptions - that most of the cyclones heading in the north east direction towards Gujarat were fizzling out even before reaching the coast. They were weakening into low-pressure areas or depressions, which is why their impact was negligible. But now, with sea surface temperatures increasing, a very severe cyclone reaching Mumbai and its suburbs as well as certain parts of Dahanu and Gujarat, is quite likely."

Palawat adds a word of caution for Mumbai owing to the city's complex structure - one that includes chawls built on multi-storey stilts, as well as numerous old, dilapidated buildings. "Due to high-rise buildings in densely populated areas, and the number of slums in the city, it will be difficult for a team to evacuate people. Even if the damage to population and manpower can be controlled, the structural damage will definitely be tough to contain."

The BMC admits that Mumbai got lucky this week, and last year as well. "Now, the question that's at the back of our mind, is what would happen if a cyclone does hit Mumbai directly? The city cannot escape every time," said Mahesh Narvekar, director, disaster management department, BMC.

Narvekar said that during Tauktae, wind speeds of up to 114 kmph were recorded. However, it was limited to around 70 kmph over Mumbai. "Even at this wind speed, more than 2,500 trees fell, and around 20 to 25 walls of small compounds and hutments collapsed. But, if the wind speeds reach 120-130 kmph as it does during an extremely severe cyclonic storm, Mumbai - where 50-60 per cent of the population lives in informal, un-engineered structures - might be in a tough spot. Evacuating around 60-70 lakh people is not a joke," added Narvekar.

Wards developing a plan

Is the BMC then, working on a contingency plan? Narvekar said that planning has been underway since Cyclone Ockhi hit the coastal parts of India in 2017.

While they have identified and mapped slum clusters or seafront areas, which are most vulnerable to these cyclones, even those residing in dilapidated buildings are currently at risk. "We have asked every ward to develop a plan and identify the vulnerable areas in their ward, and where the affected people should be shifted to, in case they need to be evacuated."

But, just shifting them will not serve the purpose. After shifting, they will have to be relocated, and resettled. "We will also need to protect their livelihood as well. We are preparing a micro-plan for that. We have already circulated a template of the plan to every administrative ward officer."

When asked about the structural damage that Mumbai could experience, in case it is hit directly by a cyclone, Narvekar said, "One cannot stop a natural disaster from occurring. There is no mechanism wherein one can minimise the impact of winds. But, all future development projects must be built according to the National Building Code of 2016. All buildings that have come up after 2016, should be cyclone resistant," he said.

Environmentalist Rishi Aggarwal references author Amitav Ghosh's non-fiction work The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable pointing out how commute change will eventually induce greater cyclones in the Arabian Sea. "He [Ghosh] has described very clearly how the occurrence and intensity of such cyclones are going to start playing havoc," he said.

In the book, Ghosh had revealed that while many of Mumbai's tall buildings have large glass windows, few, if any, are reinforced. "In a cyclone, these exposed expanses of glass will have to withstand, not just hurricane strength winds, but also flying debris. Many of the dwellings in Mumbai's informal settlements have roofs made of metal sheets and corrugated iron; cyclone-force winds will turn these, and the thousands of billboards that encrust the city, into deadly projectiles, hurling them with great force at the glass-wrapped towers that soar above the city," Ghosh wrote in the book.

Aggarwal says that from a cyclone intensity point-of-view, Tauktae was the worst cyclone Mumbai has ever experienced - especially in terms of wind intensity. "Also, over the last three years, there is a clear difference in the way we are seeing monsoons, wherein we experience dry spells throughout the monsoon, with the bulk of the rain taking place during very few, intense periods, which in turn leads to chaos and flooding on the streets. But, the rest of the time, apart from these spells, we are hardly getting any rain."

‘Kid dies of electrocution'

A seven-year-old child of a tribal family in Vasai, became the first victim of electrocution after he accidentally touched a wire from an electric pole that had collapsed when Cyclone Tauktae hit the region. The incident took place on Saturday evening, when the child, identified as Mayur Padekar, had stepped out to play. Additional Executive Engineer of MSEDCL, Vasai Urban Subdivision Mahesh Madhavi and his team members rushed to the spot. "The power supply had been disconnected after the electric pole collapsed. We are still trying to ascertain how the down wire became live," Madhavi added. The police have registered an accidental death report.

- Diwakar Sharma