Mumbai-based climatologist: November rain unusual, not unprecedented

City witnessed unseasonal rain earlier this month, too. Pic/Anurag Ahire

Those considering hosting an outdoor wedding function or event in an open-air venue should ensure that their venue contract includes a contingency plan for rain and windy weather. The reason for this precaution is the forecast of unseasonal rain in the Mumbai region in the next few days.

According to both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private meteorologists, Mumbai is expected to experience unseasonal rain from November 25 to November 27, prompting the IMD to issue a yellow alert for the city. While these unseasonal showers may pose challenges for events, there is a silver lining - the rainfall is anticipated to contribute positively to the air quality in the city and surrounding areas.

"A trough has developed in the Bay of Bengal and is currently moving towards the Maharashtra coastline. This movement is anticipated to bring rainfall to several coastal districts, including parts of Mumbai and the Mumbai Metropolitan region," said a senior official from IMD's regional meteorological centre -Mumbai.

Talking about the developing weather system, climatologist Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of weather, a popular private weather blog said: "It seems Mumbai rains are refusing to go away. More rain is expected from November 25 to November 27 in Mumbai. Due to a confluence of winds (east/west winds clashing) along the ghat region, it will result in thunderstorms with hail all over in Madhya (central) Maharashtra and Marathwada. Also a trough dropping South from Northerly System will result in more rain in Mumbai and also in South Gujarat region on Sunday, November 26. This unseasonal rain is not normal for Mumbai. Apart from the financial capital, neighbouring Thane, Navi Mumbai, Panvel will also get thunderstorms. And of course, AQI will improve."

According to Kapadia, rain in November for Mumbai is unusual though not unprecedented. He said: "Such November /December rain occurs sometimes in Mumbai when a strong System in the North (Western Disturbance) dips far down South up to North Maharashtra. Mumbai has experienced winter rain from such systems before, with the most recent occurrence being four years ago. In November 2019, the city recorded 109 mm of rain during November and December. Mumbai has also witnessed a relatively warm November, with temperatures around 35 degrees Celsius until November 18. However, there has been a slight daytime temperature drop since then, hovering around 31-32 degrees Celsius, which is not an unusual phenomenon and has happened before. The hottest November day was recorded at 37.6 degrees Celsius on November 4, 2018."

Meanwhile, a meteorologist from Skymet weather, a private weather forecasting agency said: "The city of Mumbai, which becomes silent after the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon is all set to see some unseasonal rainfall activity. In Mumbai after the withdrawal of the monsoon, rain spells become few and far. In fact, only when some system or a trough forms, does the city witnesses rain and that too mostly in the month of November. Starting from December until April, Mumbai remains practically dry."

he meteorologist from Skymet further states: "Due to the extension of the trough in Bay of Bengal, Mumbai is expected to see some rainfall activity between November 25 and 26. Clouding is expected to be seen on November 24th as well. Good showers may be seen across the city on both November 25 and 26, with the reduction being on November 27th. The clearance in the weather is expected around November 28 with November 29 seeing the final clearance."

Nov 25-27
Days when rain has been predicted