Maharashtra's political landscape braces for seismic shift ahead of Lok Sabha Elections 2024

As the electoral battle for 48 seats in the state heats up further, the political parties are busy strategising their moves. The two major forces MahaYuti (Shiv Sena, NCP, BJP) and Maha Vikas Aghadi (Shiv Sena UBT, NCP-SP, Congress) are going to be taking on each other.

While the incumbent government is campaigning with the aim of 'Ab ki baar, 400 par', the opposition parties are looking to capitalise on the victim card. However, a strong contender to stand up to both these forces has recently seen a meteoric rise and could change the electoral landscape in the state.

Political strategist Ritwik Mehta, who is also the founder of the think tank Niti Tantra, gave key insights regarding the political landscape in Maharashtra, particularly focusing on the alliances and strategies of major political parties as they gear up for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. The discussion delved into the internal dynamics of political coalitions, the emergence of new players, and the evolving socio-political factors shaping electoral outcomes.

Mehta, responding to a query on the two coalitions of Maharashtra working out, said that Maha Vikas Aghadi's ship is sailing in troubled waters, especially amid seat-sharing talks.

"The alliance is based on two factors and they are chemistry and mathematics. The BJP is in alliance with Shiv Sena because chemistry and with Ajit Pawar-led NCP for mathematics," said Ritwik; however, he pointed out that Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and NCP-SP are not ideologically aligned and added that the public airing of discontentment has had an impact.

The founder of Niti Tantra added, "When Sena (UBT) released their list of candidates, top leadership of Congress in the state publically expressed displeasure saying they were not taken into confidence. It took nearly a week for the exchange of barbs between Congress and Sena (UBT)'s top leaders to stop."

Sena (UBT) had announced candidates for 17 seats including those in Mumbai and Sangli which were at the time under discussion.

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Mehta further said that the cadre of the grand old party in Sangli is not happy with the decision of the MVA.

Effect of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 on grand alliances

Speaking about the effect of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 results on the following two alliances, he remarked that the handling of discontentment brewing among parties is crucial, especially for MVA. He also remarked that the MahaYuti is sailing relatively smoothly over the chemistry between the parties.

The political analyst said that the Maha Vikas Aghadi and INDIA bloc in national politics are at risk of disbanding due to the internal conflict amidst the parties.

Elucidating on it further, Mehta stated that Maha Vikas Aghadi faces challenges in maintaining cohesion which raises concerns about the alliance's stability. He said in the broader coalition INDIA, a similar view can be witnessed.

"One by one, the opposition bloc leaders are backing out, Mamata Banerjee fought solo. Nitish Kumar also switched and sided with BJP due to increasing pressure by his party leaders who believed they came to power because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi," Ritwik said.

Factors influencing voter behaviour in Maharashtra

When asked about the evolving demographics and socio-economic factors influencing voter behaviour, Ritwik said that in the Lok Sabha Elections, 2024 caste identities will play a significant role as parties are attempting to appeal to diverse voter segments.

Given the recent Maratha agitation and the increased intensity of the protests in the last few months of 2024, Ritwik said, BJP winning from Marathwada seems difficult. He added that the saffron party however is likely to sweep all seats in Vidarbha.

"Through my interactions with community members, particularly in Vidarbha, where Marathas wield significant power, it is clear that support for the BJP continues. Even in Chandrapur, where the Congress has put Pratibha Dhanorkar as a candidate, pockets of Maratha voters support the BJP. This move can be linked to the execution of several schemes, like as the Vishwakarma Yojana, and Prime Minister Modi's explicit affinity with the OBC community, which is supported by his cabinet's," Mehta added.

Ritwik added that, "Caste politics continue to play a significant role in electoral dynamics. Additionally, regarding tribal votes, the misconception that only Gonds support the BJP has been debunked. With Draupadi Murmu assuming the presidency, there has been a notable increase in support from various tribal communities, as evidenced in the recent Chhattisgarh elections."

The political strategist further said, "You will see not only the Gonds, but Bhils also, a very minor section votes for the BJP." He added that however, at one point in time Congress ran the Mulund network of methods.

If you go to Mumbai and talk to the Muslim community, they once voted for the INC. Now you talk to the minority community, the Muslims, they say they will vote for the Sena UBT, he said.

Thackeray & Ambedkar factors

Amid the recent happenings including Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena announcing it will support the Mahayuti, it changed the dynamics of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 contest in Maharashtra.

Ritwik Mehta, speaking to mid-day, said that initially Raj Thackeray was brought to counter the Uddhav Thackeray group and he was being offered one seat. However, it seems like Thackeray's party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) seems to have struck a deal with BJP that if they back Mahayuti In Lok Sabha Elections 2024, the saffron party will support them in state assembly elections and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections.

Since the talks with MVA failed and Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi has decided to fight the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 solo.

"VBA was supposed to join MVA, however, that fell through. MVA wanted to take Ambedkar's party since it had divided the Dalit and Mahar communities' votes in 2019 assembly elections which had benefitted the BJP in the end," Ritwik said. He added that had VBA joined Maha Vikas Aghadi, it would have been difficult for the BJP or other parties of Mahayuti.

When questioned about the impact VBA going solo will have on the electoral landscape, Ritwik said, "Mahars usually do not vote for BJP in either Maharashtra or across India; however, the Matangs do. The Mahar community's votes in Maharashtra goes to VBA now and in other states it is Congress."

He added that Ambedkar has been aggressively campaigning for their candidates and giving good press conferences to set their foot.

Mehta added, "If the same thing happens in the Assembly, that Prakash Ambedkar does not join the Maha Vikas Aghadi, and they don't have the right to share seats, then, I think, in the Assembly, they will do the same damage as they did in 2019, and it will eventually help the BJP only, because votes will be cut."

As the election date draws nearer, one thing is clear - Maharashtra's political landscape is poised for a seismic shift. Whether it is the rise of the VBA, the intricacies of coalition politics, or the aspirations of the common voter, the stage is set for a dramatic showdown in the Lok Sabha Elections of 2024.